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Inside An Epic Antiques Roadshow Find (Plus An Industry Update From Joe Thompson)

Published on Mon, 18 May 2020 10:00:19 +0000

Get the full scoop on that jaw-dropping Paul Newman Daytona (and a whole lot more).

Synopsis

This episode of Hodinkee Radio features two distinct segments exploring different aspects of the watch world. The first half features interviews with Antiques Roadshow executive producer Marsha Bemko and veteran watch appraiser Peter Plains, who discuss the show's most memorable watch discoveries, including the viral segment featuring a Paul Newman Daytona purchased for $345 in the 1970s that was valued at \(500,000-\)700,000. They explain the authentic, unscripted nature of the show, the process of selecting objects for television, and the profound impact these appraisals can have on people's lives. Peter Plains, who has been collecting and dealing watches since age twelve, emphasizes that what he enjoys most is the ability to change someone's life by revealing the true value of an heirloom they've had tucked away for years.

The second half shifts dramatically to the state of the watch industry during the COVID-19 pandemic, with Hodinkee's Joe Thompson providing an in-depth analysis of what he describes as a "historic downturn." Swiss watch exports dropped 22% in March 2020 alone, with projections suggesting 2020 could be the worst year in modern Swiss watch history, potentially down 25-35% for the full year. Thompson details the devastating impact on manufacturing, distribution, and retail, with over 40,000 workers on reduced hours and predictions of significant company failures, particularly among smaller, undercapitalized brands. The conversation also covers the demise of Baselworld, the 103-year-old trade show that couldn't survive the pandemic's impact, and the exodus of major brands led by Rolex and Patek Philippe to Geneva. The episode concludes with uncertainty about the second half of 2020 and beyond, noting that even if stores reopen, questions remain about whether consumers will feel comfortable or appropriate purchasing luxury watches during such challenging times.

Transcript

Speaker
Unknown I don't want to say I've seen it all because I haven't seen it all, but I'm really blessed that I've traveled the world since I'm 18. I went to every major auction in the world, every museum, and I've had so many fine things pass through my hands. But I gotta tell you, I think I like more seeing that I can change somebody's life by telling them what they have. That they did not know that all along they've had sitting in that vault or sitting in that drawer under the socks, wherever they kept it, buried in the backyard. You know, there's the answer, you know, to their retirement, pay their mortgage off, send their kids to college, whatever it is. I truly love that experience
Unknown . Hey everybody, I'm your host Stephen Polverant and this is Hodinki Radio. Way back in January, John Buse wrote a story about this antiques roadshow segment where a Paul Newman Daytona that had been purchased for $345 back in the 70s was now valued at hundreds of thousands of dollars, and the veteran owner almost passed out live on the show. The clip has since gone viral on YouTube, and based on the responses we got in the comments on the story, everybody found it just as crazy as we did. Since then, we were able to get in touch with a couple of the folks at Antiques Roadshow to get a little bit more of the story, so joining us today are executive producer Marsha Bemco and appraiser Peter Plains, two of the people instrumental in bringing this watch to light. They tell us all about how they found the watch, how they told the story, and what makes Antiques Roadshow such a special project for both of them? After that, we've got my conversation with Joe Thompson, talking all things watch industry. As Joe describes it, it's a little bit like reporting on an earthquake in the middle of an earthquake, but we get into the state of the industry, what's going on with the trade shows, and a whole lot more. Joe's about as well sourced as they come, and he's got some incredible information that I hadn't heard until we talked about it on air. So I learned a ton, and I think you're gonna learn a ton too. The picture may not be the most optimistic, but there's still tons of time, and Jill gives us a pretty good sense of what might be on the horizon. So without further ado, let's get into it
Unknown . You explain to people when they see us that we haven't had a chance for a haircut for several weeks or my COVID beard. Do you do you give an explanation as to why we look like this
Unknown ? You look great, Marsha. You actually look better. I don't wanna t I don't know what you're doing, but you look better for some reason. Thanks, Peter. You look dandy too. I like your beard
Unknown . Really? Yeah, it looks good. My sister says it makes me look old. What a scene. I think it's cool. I think it'
Unknown s good. I like it. Yeah. It makes you very hip. Well, thank you guys both for joining us. I know there's there's a lot going on right now. It's a pretty pretty crazy time, but uh it's it's nice that we could could get together and do this. So thank you, Marcia and Peter, both for for joining us today. It's it's really nice to have you guys. Terrific to be with you, truly. Um I figure we'll we'll start off, I mean I think our our audience is all familiar with Antiques Roadshow, but I I wanna get a little a little background on on each of you. Maybe Marsha, can you tell us a little bit about who you are, how you ended up uh working on on Antiques Roadshow?
Unknown Geez, how did I end up working? It's long story. I won't take you through all of it. I am Marsha Bebco. I'm executive What does that meet me? It makes me the the the lead. I am the top lead in the show. I produce the show. And how did I get here? Well we are about to tape season twenty-five, God willing we end up on tour this year. And um and I have been with us since we were taped season well, right after we taped season four. So I have been with Roadshow for twenty-one years. And and and my job is listen, it takes a team. It takes a massive team, actually, on production day, hundreds of people to make Antiques Roadshow. So I have an enormous amount of help. I have a longtime team who's been with me a long time to make this show? We are reality television though. And what comes to Antiques Road Show on that day, I have the delight my job on that day. I have lots of different jobs. But my job on that day, it's a familiar word to pickers in the world of picking antiques, is I pick, me and two other people do it, pick the objects for television. And that's one of the fun jobs that day. I run around and talk to people like Peter and decide whether or not they have something worth taping. Um and even after we tape that stuff, I'm the one who watches much of it to decide whether or not it's good enough for air. Uh and I have other staff who helps me do that too. We have other producers who help me do that. So blessed to be with a terrific team and have appraisers like Peter who know what the heck they're talking about
Unknown . So Peter that that brings us to you then. So what what is your background and how did you end up a part of Antiques Road Show? Well, if you want to go from the begin
Unknown ning, uh my map my mother dragged around antiquing as a kid when I was a little kid, so I had an appreciation for old things and for antiques and by the time I was twelve I wanted to collect something and uh I started looking at pocket watches and back then I had a photographic memory. I mean don't ask me what I had for lunch yesterday I can't remember but uh but back then I remembered and I saw the discrepancies in prices. They were pretty expensive, but you'd see, you know, we'd go to an antique shop or an antique show and you know somebody want X amount of dollars. We go to another store and it's the same piece and it was a different price. So we spent our summers in North Carolina riding horses, and uh anyway, I went to an antique show and this dealer says I want to get out of the watch business. So he offered me three pocket watches for fifty dollars, and uh I went home that night, told my father about it, and he went with me the next day and lent me $50. Bought the three watches, um, showed them to another dealer on the show and sold them for $150, and I paid my father back. And uh that's got me collecting and uh my parents didn't give me money so I had to wheel and peel to support my collecting habit. My father did buy me a book who was booked to by Roy Earhart on pocket watches, which was great for me. I memorized every m movement in it the next three days. And uh six years later I was writing a book with him on wristwatch. It's the first price guide ever published. It was published. I started writing when I was 18, published when I was 20, 1984. Wow. And became the Bible of the industry. And if you want to go back in time and look at prices, then you'll really cry what you could have bought stuff for. They told us for $350, Mill Gows for $350. I mean, I mean stuff was really by today's standards, my gosh, we had no idea. It was so cheap. So uh push forward, you know, rather than flipping hamburgers at McDonald's in school. You know, when I went away to college, uh, you know, I started hustling the pawn shops looking for watches. And I would go to my Friday morning economics class uh uh and then drive to Tampa International Airport with a briefcase with everything I bought the last two weeks, fly to a NAWCC Watch show, sell everything and come back. And uh you know, that's how I put myself through college was uh you know, collecting watches. Uh I started collecting pocket watches when I was twelve, started dealing with wrist watches in around nineteen eighty, eighty one, eighty one, I was seventeen, I didn't collect wrist watches until nineteen eighty four. They were just going up so fast in value, I said, gosh, the collectors are making more money than me and I started putting away things. And uh and just it became my vocation. And I I'm very blessed that I've traveled the world since I'm 18. I've been going to auctions all over the world and and I just every day I've been blessed. I I'm a modern day treasure hunter and and loved every minute of what I do. I've I've been able to just enjoy my passion my whole life. So he's you know very blessed about that. But it's it's been really a lot of fun. We work hard. Marcia doesn't let us lack off. Okay. We we work real hard, but she has a fabulous team. And uh I remember seeing her on an airplane, one of the first shows I did, and I I didn't even know she knew who I was, but I congratulate her on having such a crack team and she's like if they weren't good I would have fired them immediately. So you know it Marsha. And and and we've got a a tremendous group of friends now. You know, I don't know if you know how watch dealers and collectors are, but you know, you show them a watch and say, Hey, you know, look look what I got. You know, like how much is it? You know, they don't want to give me any information all the time. You know what? We're free with information amongst the dealers. The dealer calls me up on the phone and says, Hey Pete, I'm looking at this. He said, Hey, look, you know what? It's worth twenty thousand, but I'd like to pay eighteen. You know, but but we're really honest with each it's great. And it's like I can call anybody, you know, whether it's a Tiffany lamp or a piece of furniture or so it's been great. We have this networking of it and really made some great, great friends. And uh some of them I vacation with now uh some of them come and visit with me. I've even had some of the crew come and stay stay with me in the wintertime. It's been fabulous. I'm gonna invite Marcia to come down, but I think she likes the cold weather. Can people see me sticking my tongue out now Steven? Uh it's an audio media. So my next step was to go into the auction business and now I'm launching my first auction. It's gonna be Lux Auctioneers. It's part of my exit strategy to also start selling off. I have a collection of about three thousand time pieces, so I'm gonna start slowly liquidat
Unknown ing them. Some of those watches are are watches that you've you've held on to since you started, since the the early eighties? Since the beginning of time, yes. W
Unknown ow. I was buying four path reference 2499s. We didn't care whether they were series one, two, three, or four. Uh uh, my first one I paid twelve thousand dollars for. It's a series one in pink gold. I still have it, so you know. Um I didn't collect Rolex per se because Rolex was an inferior movement at the time. People said look at a paddock philippe, look at a Rolex, you know, you had your choice, so I collected paddock Felipe mainly. But as years went on I started seeing how valuable Rolex is became and got more
Unknown Hey, I noticed Stephen sort of groaned with with envy when he you said you paid twelve thousand for that watch. What's that watch watch today? Why did you why did why did that happen
Unknown ? A pink old twenty four ninety nine? You Peter, you would probably know a current price better better than I would. What what is it? Well, it's probably two to three million dollars may
Unknown be. Wow. Uh for one for one piece, yeah. So it's it's yeah, I've sold things that are w multi-million dollar watches. We didn't know back in the early eighties what was rare and what wasn't rare. I had a platinum paddock fleet chronograph. And you know, and unfortunately, God bless his soul, a friend of mine was a collector who was a doctor. Maybe he wanted he was much older than me, maybe he wanted to buy it from me. He said, Oh, I had those. They're you know, that made it sound like it wasn't real. And I sold it, you know, I think I sold it for $29,000. That's a multi-million dollar one today. But but uh I've I've I would say that I've handled many, many, many pieces. I've I mean I had so many Rolex moon phases go through my hand when they were three, four, five thousand dollars a piece. I mean, you know, I mean that's wild. You want to hear something crazy? Uh how about having a first series milk house with a lightning bolt hand and taking the hand off and put it on a gold oyster perpetual because we thought the hand was cool, you know, to put that lightning bolt in. It was like a three hundred fifty, four hundred and fifty dollar watch. So, you know? Yeah. And and and the hand of that watch thing is probably worth ten, twenty thousand dollars, you know, it's it's tot
Unknown al madness. But uh who knew. What do you what do you think if you had to to narrow it down to maybe one factor, what do you think is the biggest factor in in this change, this huge explosion in in prices and knowledge? Simple supply and
Unknown demand. You you had very yet a lot less collectors originally, okay. And as time goes on, it just kept, you know, building and building. And I gotta tell you, I I thought Rolexes were overinflated in price uh the last few years. And then I was at a show in Hong Kong, and I was sitting with a friend of mine, uh, an Italian dealer at a boat there. And I was watching all these people coming up and you know, there is a major collector in every country of the world. And I said, Wow, this thing is really big. It's still got room to even go up higher because there are just so many collectors
Unknown now. I I wonder, you know, w I I have some questions about specific watch stories from Antiques Roadshow, but before we get into that, um Marcia, can you give us some some context about how an episode of Antiques Rocho comes together? I think a lot of people are probably wondering like how how do you get down to the actual episode from everything that you start with? Well, you know, it star
Unknown ts with our event day. And what happens is we have several thousand people who will come to an event, and that is by the way, after tens of thousands apply, we ticket so that they can come. And on that day we cover over 20 categories, including the category of watches, but you can come and bring your furniture, your jewelry, your dolls, or whatever it is. And most of the people who are going to come in that day, they will see one of our about 70 or so experts who are on set that day. And they will learn basically that A own something that is a glass vase from nineteen fifteen. It's used to hold flowers and it's worth fifty bucks. And then they have something better. And then they don't learn anything that day, you know, that moment. And what happens is that the appraiser will ask the guest to wait for a producer to come over. And the pr the get and that's what happens every time Peter sees something good, he hopes we thinks it's as good as he thinks it is. Because we don't say yes to everything a praiser pitches to one of us. We don't have as much camera time as we have pitches. So we have to be discerning about what's being pitched to us. Plus, as you notice, we couldn't keep Kita quiet. They are really good salesmen. And so you know you just have to stuff a sock in their mouth before they stop pitching, pitching, pitching. They'll pitch all day long at pitching objects. We have a lot to choose from. And we choose what we think is best. Everything we tape, do we use? No, of course not. No no producer of any kind of production uses everything they grab. Um but from what we tape on that day, and we tape multi-camera segments, single camera segments, quick snapshot segments. We will make three plus episodes of television mixing that all up. We'll go through all the rushes, watch everything, cut some things, not cut some things. And it's harder than it looks. Frankly, we're in the cutting shows now virtually. We're able to do that. Um, and we're working together virtually. But it is harder than it looks. It's obvious on things like when a fabulous watch walks in. You know, a fabulous watch walks in our, two year old would pick it. But most of watch walk watch in isn't like that. Most of what sh what walks in isn't, you know, uh oh, this is a definite in. So that's what we do. For most of the people who come that day, we provide a public service, we tell them about what they own, and they learn in it to in very often they're bringing us inherited things, so they learn a lot about who they are. And uh that's how we make Antiques Roadshow. We have enough left over from every city that we make an episode called Junk in the Trunk, one of my favorite titles. Um and it's so it's all about touring. And uh and then we make you extra episodes where we have some great updates and, you've seen some of those where we update the values on things like watches that were appraised 15 years ago, and we do set you know six, seven vintage programs every year at least. And um you've seen some of our watches go up millions of dollars. Never mind hundreds of thousands. So um so yeah. We we've we've seen a lot we don't know what Peter knows, we never will. But we sure know a heck of a lot
Unknown more than we used to. Is is there something about watch stories that you think makes them different from the other categories of of things brought on? Is there something that kind of either sets those stories apart or some commonality you find amongst those stories that makes them makes them special? At least with the watches
Unknown Road Show has seen, or the ones we have seen and shared with you, who 'cause who can remember all the stuff we've turned down? Um both of them are very personal stories. They either bought the watch or their dad bought the watch or their mother, whatever, somebody in the family owned it, it's inherited. Um, you know, from a producer point of view, you know, it's not the biggest object in the world to shoot. Not that anybody cares about that, but you know, we do. Logistically it's kind of a small thing. So you know, we want to make sure because people like you and everybody listening to this really care about the details. So we're always striving by the way, just to shoot that thing to the point where you can see those details with And so um all of it's about putting that together. But for me the family stories, whether it's a watch and the watch tend to have those those uh ingredients and they also tend to those who knew enough about provenance mattering and paper mattering, they saved their documentation, the lucky ones. Or probably and Peter knows this better than me, probably the ones they pitch to us save their documentation. I'm gonna guess they see a lot of watches without the documentation that aren't worth pitching. So we have a sieve of what we see versus all those Timexes and other watches that uh Pete's taking a look at
Unknown . With reality television and so much of this stuff is staged antiques roadshow. It's not like that. And probably most of the may not realize that because I know people think, oh, you sent that watch in, you sent that lamp in, you know, it is not staged. And Marcia and her team and the appraisers, we're all looking out for somebody that's gonna come in and try to, you know get on TV with something and and or you know it is just totally totally real and we sift through a lot of stuff as Marcia was saying she didn't how many watches we look at, everybody has got an old pocket watch in their house, you know, almost everybody. And just between Elgin and Wolfham watch companies alone, they made over eighty, ninety million pocket million watches. So we see a lot of those all day long waiting, you know, for something really nice that we can pitch. Oh my goodness. How many of those do you
Unknown see a day, Peter? Just it makes me laugh thinking about you looking at all those watches. That's the rough
Unknown part, you know. Um funny. And you don't want to insult anybody, you know, it's their family heirloom, but you know, it's just every you know the reality is, you know, i i if they weren't made out of gold or silver, they didn't get melted down and they they've lasted all these years and everybody still has them. And sometimes we strike out, you know, you could sit at that appraiser's table the whole day and not see one one thing worth picking to the producer saying, Hey, this is good television or this is very
Unknown interesting, informative. No, that's what makes a great find so great. Even though you're seeing it on Roadshow, it's still rare. It's a very rare item that you're seeing. And so the appraisers are as excited as what you see, that's genuine and real because they're gotta see and touch this thing 'cause they're such geeks, they don't care if they don't own it, they just wanna touch it. Um, and well, they do care, don't you, Peter? You do care if you don't own it. I I say it in jest. Um, but but they really are many most like Peter since a young boy, young person, young woman, young girl are are crazy for the stuff. And so when they see something that they know they may have once in a lifetime to see it. And and they're at a table with other watch appraisers, so it's a matter of who's in line and you get it. So it's even a further further luck. Did a great thing come to that city? Did it come to your table? And did it come to you at that table? And it's a really rare thing. So the watches we've seen that are worth six, seven figures, as you guys know, extraordinarily rare objects. And you go they sift through a lot and can go with through a day of seeing things that aren't worth sharing with the nation, shall we say
Unknown ? Yeah. Yeah. I mean, I I I think you know it's it's worth getting right into one of the stories that we wanted to talk about today, and that's the the Bonanzaville Paul Newman Daytona. You know, I think this is is uh an exceptional, extraordinary watch, uh, and the the story and the way you all presented it is is fantastic. And I think it's it's something we get excited about because it makes watches and watch collecting relatable. It's something that like I can send to, you know, my friends from college and that I can send to my parents and, you know, they get it in that way um which I think is something that that Roadshow does really well. So I I wonder let's let's just start at the beginning there. I mean where where did this story start? What's kind of your earliest interaction with this this gen Well it it started at the appraiser
Unknown table. He's got a Rolex box there and I'm thinking yeah, probably got a steel and gold day just, you know, or something like that inside of it. And then we opened the box and could not believe what I was seeing. I brought in a Rolex wat
Unknown ch that I had purchased while I was in the military. I had other wat
Unknown ches I wore and I just put this one into a safety deposit box. This particular model is referred to as an Oyster Cosmograph. They're also referred to as Daytonas. Could not believe what I was seeing. You know, I thought he had like maybe a two tone date just Rolex in there or something. I open up this box and I hear I'm standing at, you know, really could be called the holy grail there, you know, of antiques roadshow finds. And you need a major poker face because I mean you want to just yell out, wow, but you can't, you know. You just gotta. And at that point, you know, we're sort of like detectives in a way. We need to we need to uh vet this person and see, you know, you know, did did Steven send his friend over to, you know, to mess with us, you know. So, you know, we start asking questions. What can you tell me about? How did you get it
Unknown ? What happens is is a Peter is is finishing up, he's decided to to pitchch the wat to me. Peter pitches me the watch and he tells me, you know, this he tells me what is what you're gonna hear on air. He tells me what this thing is worth. And I go over to interview the guest. He knew he had something good. I w he wouldn't tell me what the dollar amount was, but my sense is is that he was thinking somewhere around seventy five grand. Peter, do you agree with that? Maybe that was where he was thinking in his mind, fifty, hundred, maybe you know, but nothing, nothing like what Peter was gonna tell him. He did not have a clue. This I can attest to. He knew it was good, but that good, no way. Extremely extrem
Unknown ely rare. A watch like this at auction is worth about $400,000.
Unknown You okay? I didn't think he'd fall down. I'm so glad he did. Um but uh it was a every producer's dream really
Unknown . Don't fall. I'm not done yet. I said a watch like yours because of the condition of it. Your watch at auction today, $500 to $700,000. No, I'm very serio
Unknown us. Peter, you mentioned having to keep a poker face, right? And so the the person clearly knows that that it's interesting because you've brought a producer over, but how do you sort of like ease them into the idea that like maybe it's something really special? Uh I don't ease them into it.
Unknown I don't let on any knowledge at all to them. I just ask themed, you know, do you mind if we do the appraisal on camera? And most people say yes, but there are people, Marshall tell you, they don't want to be filmed. I I I had a lady one time who was from a very prominent American family, and she says, I can't, I'm a such and such. You know, so what do you can't do anything about it, you know? But uh so uh that's it. I don't say anything. Put it away. We don't want anybody else to see it, right? Because you come walking by and go, let me see that you know, so you know, it it's put away. And and and they wait. And the next time we're talking is when we're on set. We've got everything set up there. And then we and then you you saw the appraisal I just start talking about it and I start telling them what they have and uh I you know ask them about you know how they got it and you know a little bit of history about it and uh so there we don't tell 'em anything. So and as people know, they watch Antiques Roadshows. Some things are not valuable. Sometimes they find out something's not real. You know, but we don't say anything until we get 'em in front of that camera. Because it is a TV show
Unknown and Marsha wants the reaction. I will I will tell them when we have our coaching meeting the day before we tape, don't be a leaky faucet. Because you get so excited when you see something, do not tip off the guest with your uncontained enthusiasm because we don't want them to learn before the taping. We make an honest show. We're on PBS. We are our reputation is everything. When you see it being taped, that is the first time the guest is learning the info. We didn't rehearse it earlier. Even if we have to retake something, we use the first reel reaction. The integrity of what you're seeing is everything you imagine PBS should should be
Unknown doing, and we are. Yeah. That's great. So so for this this Paul Newman find, I mean Peter, you referred to it as as sort of the holy grail. I mean, for both of you, does this stand out as kind of the pinnacle watch moment on on Antiques Roadshow, or is there is there another that you think is is maybe close?
Unknown This is the pinnacle watch moment from a producer's point of view because he fell down. I mean it's worth an enormous amount of money. We have watches that have updated to more value but didn't tape at that value, so that's a difference. And um and so that has the record like that. But if somebody could come to Roadshow and f fall down or do something like that once every season, as a producer, I am just gaga about it. Peter, if you have another fine like that, you'll be a lucky man
Unknown . Well, I I really feel fortunate to say that I feel I have the trifecta because I got a crier. I have somebody stop bre
Unknown athing and I had somebody fall down. So you know I I feel really content. You're just knocking them down here with uh with watch knowledge. That's true. I knocked out a person without even laying a hand on them. Did you I mean d do you ever have people after you give them these valuations say like o okay now what? Like what do I what do I do with this thing? Like okay, I have this watch that's worth close to a million dollars. Uh how how do I how do I get that million dollars? Like how what do I do with this?
Unknown Uh yes, I mean I think all the appraisers, you know, our information is on the PBS website. And uh we're we're in the uh information booklet that is passed out to everybody our contact information so uh I I do get contacted after events sometimes much later.im Someset people think a long time, and some but not everybody, but we get people to contact us and say, could you assist us in in selling it? Or I'd like to get an updated appraisal. Some people want to keep the things and they ask
Unknown about restoring them, insuring them. I will say this, and we know this from as producers of the show. Very rarely do people part with their objects no matter what we value them for. They keep them. They insure them. They hand them down to their children. They do whatever they protect them. They may now realize they have to protect them in some other way if they have extraordinary value
Unknown There have been a couple other, I would say, like big watch moments. Um, you know, there's there's the 6542 GMT uh that was recorded, I believe, in 2016. Um, there's a Tiffany Dial GMT. Um can you maybe walk us through that that that uh 6542 GMT uh story? That's another one that I know our audience really kind of loves. I love that one too because the
Unknown the reaction of the gentleman was also just so wonderful. And you know, I love it when uh when I can appraise something and it can be life-changing for a person with evaluation. Uh I know you're asking about the GMT. I'm just gonna step back for a second. The gentleman that owned the Daytona. I mean, you know, I asked him what he did after the war. He he was a welder. So you know I don't know what his savings was. I mean I'm sure he, you know, whatever they are, obviously that watch could have just doubled at his retirement. So, you know, it's just wonderful to get great news. On the day that we looked at the six five four two, uh the gentleman came up to the table and he brought two watches. Both of them he bought at the PX when he was in Germany. And as you know, you've guys seen the video, you know the story. It's a great story. He really was totally clueless that the watch had any value at all. I love the reaction. Great sincere reaction. At the very end, our mics were hot and uh, you know, after I, you know, he was speechless as he said, and he really looked like he stopped breathing. I really had a lot of friends when they watched that. They were all calling it, going, What are you trying to kill the guy? You know, he stopped breathing. But he was totally speechless. And um, you know, here's a gentleman late stage in life, and uh he finds out that his watch is is worth a lot of money. And as he reacted at the very end he did say, you know, I would have been happy if you told me fifteen hundred dollars. And uh so it it was just fantastic.
Unknown It's It's interesting because these people, when they come to you, these these objects already have tremendous value to them, even if it's it's emotional value, if it's not financial value. So it it must be an interesting experience for them to realize that there's this whole sort of secondary store of value. It's it's sentimental, but like other people also value this thing. Um it must be kind of an interesting like moment of reckoning. As Marsha said e
Unknown arlier, a lot of these people don't part with these things because they can't let go of those emotional feelings. And so not a lot of these things do come on the market, even though you know you would think they do. And the stories are amazing. I mean we hear a lot of us a lot of stories. I mean, you know, even things that are not worth a lot of money. I've had people bring me up a a twenty dollar watch, a fifty dollar watch, but the the stories, you know, it means so much to them. It's it's it belonged to somebody in their life that was just very important to them. And that's the interesting thing about watches. I think most of the watches were not acquired later on. They are they really are personal objects that are either been passed down in the family or were acquired by the owner. Where other things you get a lot of things where people they went to a yard sale, they saw a nice painting, you know, they said, Wow, you know, I liked it and I bought it. I didn't know it was worth a lot of money, but at the time. But watches tend to be really personal. So
Unknown there's th there's that connection. Are are there any other anecdotes that stand out to you, whether it's from watches that that made the show, watches that you know you encountered that weren't quite right for TV, but the story has stuck with you over over the years? Uh yes. I've I'
Unknown ve seen some fabulous stuff that for one reason or another, could not be aired. You know, one of them was this lady. We were in Newport, Rhode Island, and saw some a lot of wonderful things come in. A lot of wonderful things. Uh the watch and jewelry table was combined and we saw a lot of nice things come in. One of them, I I can't say the family name, but one but one of the you know, one of the big robber baron families of this country. A lady was a descendant and you know, and I wanted to put her on air and she said, Oh no, I you know, I I can't do that. Uh uh you know, she didn't want to be seen. Um it's a shame. We've seen things that are wonderful, but not everybody wants to be filmed. Part of the reason also I've noticed is sometimes we see things and everybody when somebody passed away in their family, everybody got to pick something. Well, you know, one of those four or five people got lucky and got the really rare thing. And then if they get on air th their siblings are like, Hey, you owe me money, I want my share of it, you know, it's not fair. But at the time it maybe it was all worth the five hundred dollars, you know.
Unknown No, that is the downside of being on the roadshow. If you are the family member thing is like uh suddenly th you see, oh, but I own this with my sister, how do we split it in two? And so s that's the only time this great financial news you see this oh moment and then this, oh, how do I deal with that? Um, but they figure it out. But yeah, that's the the little cloud in their um in the in in their sunny world
Unknown . Do do you ever have people who are all excited to be filmed and then once they get the news, whether it's positive or negative, start having second thoughts and come to you and say, uh I'm not uh now I'm not quite so sure. Or people pretty Yeah
Unknown . So we have uh learned over the years, and you'll learn this if you now come to Roadshow, you'll know why we do it. When you come you have to sign a materials and a person release. That's you know, we're have lawyers who make us have everybody sign a release. It basically tells us we can use that footage however we want, online, on broadcast, on anything. We make sure you sign it before you tape. Because you're not gonna get to change your mind after you tape and tell us that you don't want us to use it. Because that happens. I've had a woman who um it's a funny story about a piece of jewelry that she was convinced we swapped out the that I while I took it over to show to another jeweler swapped the rubies out with the ones I had just like it in my pocket and you know really I it didn't have the Okay, whatever. Um or I had someone call me this season about an object that we aired recently that was very valuable jewelry, who after we taped it, she did not want it to air. is true for everyone, and it's true even for those of our appraisers. Uh that we will keep her and identity a secret. The only ones who will know who she is are people who know her. We won't tell our appraisers your last name. We won't tell anyone. Unless you have special access to our database at Roadshow, we won't let anybody find you. And so I convinced her to let us air her i pricey jewelry. But I I think people get nervous afterwards that they could be victims or some other or or family in particular, family, why did you get those and I didn't? Yeah. Well we haven't heard of any wars yet on it. Perfect. Good. Good.
Unknown Keeping keeping keeping the peace. The peace is in the family still. Yeah. Yeah. Um I I wonder if if for either one of you, do you do you have any sort of dream finds? You know, whether it's it's watches or otherwise, like something that ever every time you host an event you just say, This is the thing I hope comes through the door today.
Unknown Well the Peter has a watch answer for that. For me it's not the thing, it's the story, because for me, ultimately, story is king. And so for me, what I hope happens is that something really rare and extraordinary comes in that allows us to be the first document or i.e. the discoverer of some new piece of information that makes every scholar in the nation go gaga and it's worth a ton of money and then after the guest learns that they fall down and faint absolutely. Whatever the object is, I'm good with it. But all those ingredients are perfect for me. That's that's a hell of an episode of TV right there. Isn't it? I mean can you just see it now? But the experts they all have the thing and I bet you Peter has the thing or two that he he wants. I as
Unknown a collector and a dealer, yes, I I I I love to see fabulous things. But I gotta tell you, I I think I like more seeing that I can change somebody's life by telling them what they have. I really do. I uh that's if you ask me what am I proudest most about what I've done on Roadshow is that I've gotten these sincere reactions out of people were maybe I've changed their life. Maybe they were, who knows? I mean, you know, we all can be down on our luck, finances, whatever, and all of a sudden find out that everything has been fixed. Uh I did a paddock fleet pocket watch that the man thought was worth about a thousand dollars for the gold bag. He's the crier, you know, and uh if you go on the website you'll you'll see that appraisal. But he started crying and i you know, maybe it was life-changing for him. I didn't ask him why he cried, but it was a life-changing experience. I mean, you know, maybe you needed thirty thousand or fifty thousand dollars and boom, you just won the lottery. And that's basically what happens when you find out that you know you bought something for three hundred and fifty dollars and it's worth maybe seven hundred thousand to a million today or whatever. You know, it's it's it's a lottery ticket. And uh it's it I really like that more than than I don't want to say I've seen it all because I haven't seen it all, but I'm really blessed that I've traveled the world since I'm eighteen. I went to every major auction in the world, every museum, and I've had so many fine things pass through my hands. And I still and I've acquired a lot of fine things. So I like the experience of seeing changing somebody's life by telling them something that they didn't know. That they did not know that all along they've had sitting in that vault or sitting in that drawer under the socks, wherever they kept it, buried in the backyard, that you know, there's the answer, you know, to their retirement, pay their mortgage off, send their kids to college, whatever it is. And that is I truly love that experience. And it it's you can't get that anywhere else to change someb
Unknown ody's life and give them good news. That's fantastic. I I wonder are there are there any and I'm I'm sure you can only say a little bit, but are there any uh yet unaired uh watch stories kind of in the in the can that we have to look forward to in uh future episodes? Uneired? No. Be
Unknown cause The good ones we air them. But what we are and we're in the we're making them now, we're producing them now are vintage episodes where we update prices. And that's where you learn some extraordinary things while we learn some extraordinary things because along the way as we update values like that, we can learn things that inform the value. And so um yeah, we'll have some good watch updates coming for
Unknown you. Absolutely. Great. Yeah. Perfect. We'll uh we'll make sure to link people to that so that everybody can uh can check it out. Um thank you thank you both so much for joining us for this. This is this is great and uh we'll have to have you back and and keep this conversation going 'cause I know like I said these these stories are they're watch stories, but they're they're human stories. They're stories about people's lives, they're stories about what, you know, people connect with, what what brings people together and uh it's it's really sort of the same ethos that that ultimately this show is about. And you know, we're always always happy to see these stories from you guys. It's it's really fantastic. W
Unknown ell thank you for sharing the stories and for helping to amplify them because this is a feel good time. This is a good time for Antis Road Swho and to help share our stories. We're really grateful. Thank you. Plus I really like seeing your bed. You know what I like about these virtual sessions is that I know you are in your bedroom and there's your bed and that Peter's in his fancy office with all kinds of geeky things around him. And um where when else could we learn this about each other
Unknown ? and offices and rec centers and whatever, you know? Yeah. But awesome. Thank you both so much. Really appreciate it. Thank you. Anytime Stephen. And up next, we get an update on the state of the watch industry from our own Joe Thompson. Hey Joe, thanks for joining me. Pleasure to be here, Steven. I haven't talked to you in what probably like 45 minutes, an hour maybe? Just a thought, that's it. Yeah. I feel I feel like I need to put you on my like favorites list on my phone speed dial. I feel like I dial you more than I dial like my mom or anybody else at this point. Yeah, but this time it's on Hidinky Radio. That's a big deal. That's true. That's a big change for me. There's there's been a whole lot going on, obviously, in in the watch world and in the the broader world at at large. Um but I know you've you've been hard at work kind of trying to parse through all the various sources of data and and all of the sort of like firsthand accounts of of what is happening in the watch world right now in light of coronavirus, in light of other things, um, and then, you know, also what all of this means for Basel World. So I figure we'll we'll talk about both things if that if that works for you, kind of the big picture and then zoom in a little bit onto onto Basel World. Does that sound okay? Yeah, sure. As you wish perfect. Um so yeah, I guess we'll we'll start at like the most macro level. I mean if if you had to give an assessment of sort of like where the watch industry is in in twenty twenty, uh what what's it looking like?
Unknown Well, I I guess the first point I would make is that right now uh the watch industry is experiencing a historic downturn. We all know why. Um what we know is that that the first quarter was bad. Um and the second quarter will be worse. The second quarter will be brutal. And the thing to say we we th this is reporting coming uh in the middle of the second quarter. Right. So this is reporting you know as the earthquake is happening. This is in the middle of the tsunami hitting. So that um I don't have a heck of a lot of data. Some people are doing their best to make forecasts for financial analysts, for example, whose job it is to do that. And I guess the certain the one thing I just want to sort of start by saying is that we were aware that the pandemic is just doing horrible things, you know, to the world. And this is a a global pandemic, which is a global tragedy. The global watch industry is not nearly as hard hit as other industries, the airlines, these retail, uh, entertainment, hospitality, restaurants, all of that. But it is the industry that we do focus on. And so uh the first thing So that what what's happening now is that uh we are looking as I say at a a historic downturn. Um we can focus on uh the Swiss industry, that's what we we deal with mostly. The only available data that we actually have right now uh would be export data from Switzerland for the first quarter. Okay. And um the January, and for January, I mean actually the year ironically got off to a very good start. Swiss exports were up in value 9.4% in January. Um, which is when, of course, the word reaches the public about the trouble in China. In February, Swiss watch exports dropped to 9.2%. But China, the historically the number three market drops to number nine. They get very, very heavily. And then in March, Swiss watch exports drop another uh twenty-two percent. And that's the latest data that we have. Now, the thing about that is that for the other big markets in the world, Europe and the United States, most of the first quarter uh captured very little of the lockdowns that would occur. I mean, we're talking about most of the twelve of those twelve weeks in Q1, only two would be reflecting the lockdown. So that what we're looking at now is uh something really much worse. Um there are forecasts for the second quarter. Bank von Tobel, for example, in Zurich uh is predicting that uh value will be down forty percent in value for the second quarter. But we do and um and they are not just going on to the whole full year, they are also predicting that this year will be one of the worst, if not the worst, in Swiss Watch history, certainly in Swiss watch modern history. And we'll get to that in a minute. But we do know anecdotally that, for example, let's take China. The lockdown in China, which is the engine of growth for the Swiss watch industry uh was terrible. Nick Hayek told a Swiss newspaper we are we are massively hit uh by the temporary closing of hundreds of stores. This was in the February March period. And for the Swatch group, for example, that just is China and Greater China and Chinese who travel to the United States and to Europe um are just a huge portion of their sales. And so that
Unknown has been shut down. Yeah, that's a that's a part that I think is is interesting and worth kind of explaining to people who may not realize that, but that you know, sales w when we talk about China being a strong market, it's it's not just sales happening in China, it's the the newly wealthy in China who are traveling and making purchases outside of China. I mean I've I've heard numbers, you know, anywhere I guess this was a couple of years ago, but somebody told me at one point, somebody relatively reliable, that fifty percent of the watch sales in New York City happened to to Chinese tourists. And like that number doesn't sound unplausible to me. Maybe it's one in three, but you know it's it's it's a huge impact if you don't have uh Chinese tourists purchasing watches in New York, in Los Angeles, in Paris, in London, uh in Geneva, that that could be a huge impact, right? Absolutely. And the as
Unknown we look ahead, and we'll get to that in a bit, even as some people are optimistic about let's say the second half of this year. I mean, that's sort of a a debate at this point in the industry about what the second half will look like. Everybody can see it's the first half is going to be horrible. But uh in predicting the second half, one needs to remember that the Chinese are are most likely not going to be traveling. I mean, we that that's the point. We don't know anything about the second half. It's all uncertain, as I say. But but the loss of that business in European markets and the American market. We'll stink. There's no doubt about that. So Chinese were buying more at home anyway. The Chinese government wanted that. And so you know, will China be able to resume its role as the economic engine for Swiss watch seals? We'll just have to see. Um the impact of all this uh on the industry in Switzerland um has been pretty severe. We've covered it on Hadinki uh to some extent, but what we know of course is that um that that that factories have have shut down. Uh many factories. I mean it's Rolex, Potec, Philippe, AP, Ublo, Tag, many factories have shut down. Um new product launches um have been either abandoned by some companies like who can know who can afford to I have to say that would be Rolex and Potech Philippe but other companies are are are uh finding it hard to launch new products because the venues in which you would do that, they uh they've been postponed because of the coronavirus epidemic. We'll get to the Baselwald situation later. Uh as uh watches and wonders is a virtual show. Um and uh do you have a sense, Joe? Sorry,
Unknown do you do you have a sense in terms of production, right? I mean I know ear earlier today news broke, uh, you know, we're recording this a a couple days before people hear it, but you know, news broke today that that Rolex is is in the process of reopening its its manufacturing. But from some of the watchmakers I've sp I've spoken to, you know, watch watchmaking companies, not individual watchmakers. Um there there are a few that have already opened Ulysses Nardange or Arperago. I know Piaget is is making right now. Um but you know what what I've heard is that from from various various sources the that sort of tight quarters of watch manufacturing presents a problem for getting back to scale. That even if the manufacturers are opening, you can no longer have, you know, 10 people lined up on benches next to and across from one another. Everybody has to be six feet apart. Everybody has to have ample room to move about and to get in. You can only have, you know, one or two people in a clean facility at a time. So it it these companies that already, especially the m the more popular ones, are already having problems delivering necessary quantity to meet demand, are now, even if they're producing, they're not going to be able to produce at a hundred percent capacity because they may only be able to fit twenty five or thirty percent of their watchmakers in their facilities at any one time. Have have you heard similar things? Do you have any sense of offense? Well no what
Unknown what sure yes, I have heard that that that even in Rolex's case they've said that they're not gonna be able to bring everybody back um because they are not equipped uh for s uh social distancing and so that it will take a while before they they tool up and all of them tool up. But the issue is, I mean, what demand? Um this is the this is the problem. I mean you don't want to be tooling up. There's there's there all the inventories are already building um you know in shops that are closed. I mean this is this is this is the the serious problem. I mean that's what Hayek's talking about. I mean, you know, he's massively hit because all the stores in China were closed, you know, for seven weeks or whatever it is. Sure. And so uh so the the the uh the situation and also the situation with regard to the factories um is that there are forty thousand people out of a the a total workforce of a about fifty seven thousand that are now on short time in Switzerland. Because they this is, you know, people have just ramped down production as a result of the lockdown and shutdown. And so when these people come back to work remains to be seen. Whether all those jobs will be there in the second half also remains to be seen. These um there are also issues with regard to uh in the Swiss watch region, uh as you know Stephen and many know uh it's the Joura region which is the border with France, many of the people who work in the factories in Geneva, in the Valle de Jou, and La Chaux-de-Font, commute from France. Well, you know, the border is shut. And so there are complications there with regard to uh to the industry uh shutting down. It's not just Switzerland. Uh the Movado Group, based here in Paramus, New Jersey, they uh they furloughed, they put on furlough 850 uh of their workforce uh starting on April 6th. Um Ephraim Grimberg announced that as long as there was Ephraim Grimberg, who was the CEO of the Mabado Group announced that he would take no salary for as long as the furlough period lasted. And the salaried executives of the group are on uh are have taken 51 to 25 percent cuts in the salary. And it's just this is just sort of the anecdotal examples of uh of the impact uh that it's had on the industry. As I mentioned, it's not just the shutdown and the uh is is is not just production, it's also it's also distribution um into into the the mar markets that are now locked down. And it one little sort of moment in terms of how unusual all of this is came at the end of March when um the on the FH website. The FH is the Federation of the Swiss watch industry. It's the association of all of the watch companies and brands and the CEO, the president as they call him is a a is a is very nice man. I've known him for years and years named Sean Daniel Posh. And I'm covering this this, as I've mentioned many times, more than forty years, and I've never seen anything like this statement that he put on FHS dot swiss um which is their their website. I'll just read the first paragraph of it. This was uh on March twenty sixth. Who would have thought it? Who could have imagined just a few months ago at the end of 2019 when we found out something was in the making, in quotes in China, that Switzerland would be facing a wave of such magnitude today. Remember SARS in two thousand three when we felt as if we had seen it all, with Asian exhibitors being banned from opening our booze of Basel World? Yet it was nothing compared to what is happening today. And life is indeed proving stranger than fiction. What a lesson in humility when confronted with the natural events that are beyond our grasp. Then he goes on to say uh you know ex,press of course the concern um for everyone who was uh affected by this human social and economic tragedy, as he puts it. And then he talks about uh the watchmaking companies who are deeply affected, which are deeply affected in terms of their operation or whose very existence is in jeopardy. And that is true, we can get to that a little bit lower. There will be a shake
Unknown Who who is at the who is at the highest risk? Who who what not not companies in particular, but what what sort of profile of watch company is the company most at risk here? Just the smaller brands that are undercapit
Unknown alized. There are there are there are just literally hundreds of small brands, regional brands. I mean the one brand that we know of that that declared bankruptcy bankruptcy that had you know had that had some brand recognition internationally was Romaine Jerome. And uh they went down in in March. And um so others uh we don't know. The estimate I'm I'm hearing is thirty, I've I've heard as high as sixty. Um and it it we just have to see. With it as I say, in the middle of this, we we don't know. Yeah
Unknown . So I want to make sure I want to make sure we get into the Basel World dynamics too. Um I I I think you know, as we talk about different sized brands and who's reacting different ways. I think I think Basel World might provide a sort of like microcosm um potentially. Uh does that does that work for you? Sure. You want to go there now? Yeah, I th I think it's it's worth diving into that. I think I think people will find it pretty interesting. And I I think, you know, in in our chats I have found it immensely interesting. So I mean essentially if if I understand it correctly, the the timeline of this is Basel World was going ahead as planned. No swatch group, no brightling, you know, sort of sort of what we expected for this year. Everything was fine. Um, then coronavirus hit uh and sort of on the on the late side of things, it was it was late March when when Basel World finally said uh they they they phrased it as a postponement. Um it really is is if we're calling a spade a spade here, it's it's it's a cancellation they they postponed it in scare quotes uh to january twenty twenty one so um you know eight or nine months um and uh yeah and that that happened and then just a few weeks later, um, sort of out of nowhere, um, you know, we we saw uh this group of of five brands kind of lead lead a charge out of Basel World uh including Rolex Tutor uh Patek uh and then it was Chopard and Chanel as as well. Um and from there, essentially Basel World looked like it was withering on the vine and we we just received confirmation earlier this week that it is in fact at least in its in its current incarnation dead. Like that is now official. Uh there will not be a show called Basel World that takes place in Basel with watch brands in January 2021. The organizers MCH, uh the group that that puts the show on, is saying that they might do something else. They might do it in a different location. It'll probably be smaller, but they're not committing to anything. Is that is that a pretty reasonable grasp of the timeline? You know this much better than it actually was
Unknown was the end of February. Um Um that yeah, n not a big deal, but that and and and it was because the Swiss Federal Council made what amounts to a d a declaration of emergency for uh for the country and uh began the lockdown. Absolutely. Uh yes, the state of play right now with regard to the whole Basel World story um is this. Point one would be that as you as you put it, Basel World is dead. Um and the uh MCH group, the large exhibition company that owns it, um realizes that Basel World as being held in Basel is finished. Point two is the Swiss watch show scene has shifted to Geneva. And though the king of the watch shows is dead, there is no new king. And so we have to wait and see what is going to happen uh down uh in Geneva next April uh two th yeah, April twenty twenty one. Um point three would be that MCH however still is in the game. They they know they can't put anything on invasive, but they are exploring new locations and new formats. So they're still wanting to uh to try and make it go because they have clients there are uh in winners and losers here. Some the losers are the small and medium-zsied companies that did need Basel World in order to make sales and meet customers. They are not able to to to uh to sponsor their own summits globally or go around the world. They need people to come to one location where they exhibit. And then the fourth thing is sort of the postmortem on on Basel World. Um it it's we i it's sort of shocking. I mean, what killed this 103-year-old show that had survived World War I, the Great Depression, World War II, and the quartz crisis? Um, and we can talk a little bit about that. I if if you like, I mean there are there are uh immediate causes and remote causes. I mean the fatal blow came when uh they lost the confidence of Rolex. And the really intriguing uh question is what happened there? As of one year ago, uh Rolex was still robustly expressing support for Basel World. You may recall that when George Kern announced that Brightling, George Kern, the CEO of Brightling, announced that they were pulling out of Balsa World. Um Rolex allowed Basel World to announce that it was going to build a grand new booth for Tudor and it was going to build another Rolex booth, once a bigger, better Rolex booth. Now they built the booth that is involved in Basel World in 2013 at a cost of 30 million Swiss francs. So, you know, just do the math as to what they were going to invest in Boswell. This was last April, this occurred. Something happened in recent months and uh to uh to uh to lead to this situation whereby rolex is the ringleader in organizing the departure of the f of the five brands that left that left Basel World uh just in recent weeks. And uh once once Rolex and Potec leave, that's the most powerful Schwiss wat company and the most prestigious Swiss watch company. When they team up to leave and make statements talking about how difficult it was with Basel, it's over. So who who who lost Rolex? Is a sort of a parlor game that is now going on in Switzerland as to what happened there. But uh it is uh this is this is of course coming uh as or consequence of the pandemic. There's no doubt about that. That's a uh that the answer to the the immediate cause was that the pandemic leads to the declaration of uh of a lockdown in Switzerland, which leads to Basel World not being able to hold a show in 2020. It leads to it postponing it to January of 2021. And then the trouble starts because there is friction over one, most importantly the date of January 2021, and then once the show and one and then refunds for the canceled 2020 show. Um so the that's uh that's the immediate cause. Um one factor in all of this, uh st strangely enough, is geography. Right. It is worth noting that of the five brands that left, uh three of them are based in Geneva. Rolex, Potec, Philippe, and Philippe Philippe and Chopard are based in Geneva. And so at a certain point, it seems those, the Jean-Fridge Dufour, the CEO of Rolex, Terry Stern, uh the CEO of Patek Philippe decided, and then they I they I'm told presented the option to call Friedrich Schweifel, the CEO of Schockard. That listen, let's just why don't we just go down to you know have let's have this show here let's have it in our uh own hometown in our own home canton and um so this is this was uh people tell me a factor in in this decision once the frustration uh had gotten so high with Basel Wor
Unknown ld management, even the current management. Yeah, and it's it's interesting it's interesting to me too that, you know, not not just the geographic difference, but the the sort of second order effect of that, and this is this is obviously now purely in the realm of speculation, but uh for for those of us who travel to Switzerland frequently, you know, there they're really Switzerland is not a homogenous place as as some people might assume it it would be. Um it's in fact extremely uh you know with within a certain a certain set of boundaries it's it's relatively diverse. Um and you know there are multiple languages spoken um depending on the region tells you which language that might be. Um you know the sorts of parts of Europe where people are from in those in those regions where people settled there from vary. Um and it's it's worth noting that not only is Basel not in the canton of Geneva, it is in German-speaking Switzerland, uh, in the north, whereas Geneva is in French speaking Switzerland in the south. Um and sort of culturally uh these these uh sort of uh divisions are are much more pronounced than than you might assume. Uh and and I I wouldn't be surprised if you know the the French speaking contingent of the industry, um, which which is traditionally sort of the heart of watchmaking, it's the Valley de Joux, it's Geneva, um, sort of, you know, didn't love the idea that the the perceived heart of watchmaking was a town in in German Switzerland that basically doesn't make watches. No, I absolutely
Unknown . The winners and losers of uh of the Basel drama um is the city of Basel itself. It is estimated that in the good years um and for and that's not long ago I'm talking five two thousand fourteen, um literally uh one billion Swiss francs uh went into the coffers of Basel City and Basel State, Basel Stad as they call it, because of just that two week period when uh people the for the eight day show and then a bit of setup and a bit of takedown, but it was a billion Swiss francs that uh Bennett that went into the to the city. And Geneva is already, I mean there was a there was a state counselor of Geneva who had already calculated this is going to bring a hundred a hundred uh million swiss francs to one hundred and twenty million swiss francs to this show that that will be at the polexpo next year or this actually series of shows we can talk about that uh if we want about what actually is going to happen there because it is not just one show. But uh SIHH, forgive me, call now called Watches and Wonders, um brings in about a hundred million. So that there's the the the the stakes are high here in terms of where where you have these. And so uh the big loser there is uh in bot in Basel was the um was the local the local hospitality industry? Now many would say they they deserve it. They really did bring this on themselves and uh they had nobody but themselves to blame, but they are
Unknown gonna pay they're gonna pay dearly for this. I mean having having tried to book hotels and and Airbnbs for our team for you know the better part of a decade now, uh and and having uh had to put a credit card down at many a restaurant in Basel, Switzerland, um and in fact, once having been handed the non-Basel fare version of a menu and being told at the end that actually all of the prices were wrong, um, I I can say like the hospitality industry there I think really did kind of bring it on themselves. They they did not do much to uh make the city easy and accessible. They really did everything to kind of try to wring every every dollar they could um out of out of folks, which, you know, fair fair enough, but um I I think I I agree with you in in the sense that that uh that hospitality industry brought it on itself and and didn't didn't some watchmakers even cite that as one of the reasons for leaving that it it was difficult on them and their teams and also didn't make a particularly hospitable environment for their their retailers and the the press they were trying to entertain. complaining about it for years. And
Unknown in fact, I mean I know this from uh Baza World executives themselves. For years they were, they were, especially the new management. Since the new management came in, it was perfectly clear that something had to change there. But they found the uh the Basel World hospitality industry to be very reluctant to change. They found it to be really, really stubborn. They worried because I know that at one point uh Mr. Loris Melakoff who's the head of the show um kind of just threatened to to to move the show himself out of basel because it was hurting the Basel World brand. Um let me say a bit a little bit about what what they're trying to do, just to update this thing. Uh what MCH is is exploring is perhaps going to um to have a show that would accommodate the small and medium-sized watch companies. And they might be able to have it, let's say, for example, in Lausanne. Lausanne is about 30 miles from Geneva. Um it's it's uh it's it's an easy drive by by car or van. It's an it's an even easier uh train trip uh right from the the airport at Palex and and Palexpo is at the airport. Um, so that would be one option that they may be able to keep the a watch show going. It obviously would not be called Balza World. Um and there are where they're looking at um also regional shows could be the US could be Abu Dhabi could be could be China they're also looking at uh the the trying to perhaps do something digital new formats that they were in intending to develop for Boss World. So this isn't easy. I mean, none of these shows are easy. There's no guarantee for any of these shows that are that are down there now. I mean, the lay of the land right now at Pelexpo is you will have Watches and Wonders, which is its own show. This year was scheduled to have 30 exhibitors. And then affiliated with that, which is what they they they are using, uh, is the show uh of the the what I the Rolexit show uh when uh the the five brands um Rolex Pottech Philippe I like that role Rolexit. I'm I'm into that. Uh well to me that,'s the saga. I mean, this is how when when Rolex left led the withdrawal of uh of those brands uh out of Basel. And then LVMH, we know the four LVMH uh brands um Tag, Ublo, Zenith, and Bulgari, they are wanting going to be down there in some capacity. And it's even conceivable, and I got this from you, Stephen, that Alexpo is a big place. It was also conceivable that that that MCH might be able to rent space in there. And and so that Geneva, which is actually a bigger city than Basel, the the Switzerland's largest city is Zurich, the second largest is Geneva, and Basel is actually third. But we'll have to see what happens. You do have this tremendous fragmentation. We don't know uh what is going to happen with the swatch group and with um all of the other brands that had scheduled things this yeah grand Sago uh uh and and others that had to uh well brightling for example um that wants to have its own summits um we'll just have to see um what happens in uh next year for for all of this. But yeah, that that has been a drama. The one thing I I would say that it's almost I don't even know how to to put this, but uh the lesson I learned out of this is that I need to talk to to more taxi drivers. Uh and what I uh I have to tip my hat to the taxi drivers of Basel, who, as you know, Stephen and the audience probably does not, but that in two years ago, I did a story that was titled Basel World Fights for Its Life. And in the lead, I report shocking news that was uh given to me by a Swiss watch CEO, and the shocking news was that there would be one more Balsa World in twenty nineteen and then the show would die. And he had an impeccable sources for this. And the sources were the Basel taxi drivers. And he was needling me. And he was saying to me, I mean, I can't take credit for any of this, I didn't predict this. He was needling me, he's saying that they're better than I didn't who need you, they're better than the journalists. And the taxi drivers were right. It was one more show, and then it folded. It was one and done, as I put it in the story. So uh here'
Unknown s to those guys. Yeah, seriously. So so Joe, if if we're gonna look forward a little bit, I know you you you can't see the future here, but where where do you think this is going? Like what do you think the future of of the industry and of the shows look like? Like what are what are we gonna think in six months, let's say? Yeah, that's the question,
Unknown Stephen. And the first thing to say is that absolutely nobody knows. Um uh it was interesting, George Kern, for example, told uh the Financial Times that he just he hasn't done a budget. He's just abandoned his budget. He says it doesn't make sense. Right. Most of the industry uh people are not making forecasts for the second half. The public companies, for example, uh Movado, Fossil, Seco, Citizen, uh, they're just normally they give guidance, you know, for the for the next uh quarter, et cetera. They're not even bothering. They're just saying it's just impossible to know. We do have some four forecasts. This Bank von Tobo study, uh they're saying for the year that it would be down twenty-five percent. It's worth noting that that would be according to them the single worst year for the past 50 years in terms of single year drops. So that uh even during the courts crisis, the worst year was down 15 point 15% in terms of Swiss watch exports. And even the great recession of 2009, it was down 22%. They think this year will be worse. This is in line with the luxury good industry forecasts and watch certainly Swiss watches are part of that. Those are running minus 25, minus 35%, a couple of the forecasts that I've seen. The Swiss watch industry CEOs are hesitant to predict. Some are saying, well, look, there's going to be pent-up demand, there's going to be a recovery in China, because you know Wuhan has come out of the lockdown, etc., and Shanghai and the stores are opening again. Fair enough, that's a debate right now. Because the other the other factor is that yes, Chinese will not be traveling as we mentioned. And I think there's it really a question as to um well there's also the question as to online shopping. Yes, that's that's picked up, no doubt about it in this uh in this pandemic. But for the Swiss watch industry generally, that's not much of an answer. Online shopping represents from and I've seen estimates from two to a maximum of five percent of the total Swiss SWAT sales. Swiss the Swiss industry has been uh reluctant to embrace e-commerce and they're gonna pay for it this year. Uh those who have will weather the storm better, but that's not gonna be that's not gonna be the solution to the to the second half of this year. And then the question I think is uh is whether or not people want to buy. Let's take the US market, which which sort of has is has been on a roll. We are now number one. We've been number one since last August. Uh we will stay number one. Hong Kong has no hope of uh of of recovering this year. Um but the question is, you know, what's going to happen now? Even sure, there's pent-up demand. But there are two factors. There's the fear factor. Will people return to the stores when they do open, uh, you know, when our lockdowns were just starting to open up here in the not what is now the number one watch market in the world. And then there's the field good factor. I mean, even if people can afford to buy a luxury watch. Will they want to do it now? You know, at a time when 150,000 people died in the United States, whatever that figure is going to be by the end of the year. And you know, 400,000 died globally and when there are depression era unemployment and depression era like food lines do you really want to buy something then? So this is this is this is what the debate is. Literally obviously nobody knows. A lot depends on how quickly it takes to open up. A lot depends on whether or not uh there's a second wave of the virus. And when it is we get a vaccine, which is certainly not uh expected to be to be this year. So that's what and then for Switzerland, yeah, I mean they're they're saying four thousand jobs were lost in the Great Recession. That'll certainly be that many this year and then we'll see how many watch uh watch firms uh go out but unfortunately it's uh it's just it's a grim picture for uh 2020 and uh uh, you know, I just uh hope that uh can I'll maybe just end with this. The uh the Great Recession ended uh with the a V shaped recovery. It was way, way down, twenty down twenty two percent in two thousand nine, up to 22% in uh 2010. Bank Van Tobel kind of used that as its model. It's predicting a 50-15% recovery in 2021. And that's getting way out. Nobody knows. But the difference between the Great Recession and now is that China was just growing. And and uh and and the world wasn't in a uh a government induced lockdown. So we'll just have to wait and see. Okay. So that's
Unknown uh wish I had better news like it's realistic news. It's no good news for now, but uh potential potential for good news later, maybe. I think we'll we'll that's maybe the optimistic read, but uh yeah, we'll we'll keep checking in with you. I'm gonna drag you back on the show from time to time so that we can we can keep following up on this. I mean, like you say, it's it's the the macro picture is is far from uh sharp uh couple months out and you know there's still plenty of time for things to change with the shows. So on both the things we covered today, uh there's there's plenty of adjustments, I'm sure. And and we'll we'll keep bringing you on to update people. I think these these are important things for people to be aware of, even if you know you're a more product focused uh maybe watch enthusiast. I think these things help give a little bit of context to to what's going on. So uh thank you for joining us. Thank you for doing all the amazing research and reporting for this. Um because it's it's really I learn a ton and and I'm sure people listening did too. All right Steven. Hoping for a better report next time. Yeah, let's keep our fingers crossed, man. Right. Awesome. Thanks, Joe. All right. Bye-bye. This week's episode was recorded remotely by our group of editors and was produced and edited by Grayson Korhonen. Please remember to subscribe and rate the show. It really does make a difference for us. Thank you for listening and we'll see you next week.