Ben Clymer Presents: 07 – New York Auction Preview Episode With Tony Traina and Mark Kauzlarich¶
Published on Wed, 6 Dec 2023 21:00:00 +0000
Talking the state of the auction market, vintage Patek and Rolex, and sleeper picks from this week's New York sales.
Synopsis¶
Ben Clymer hosts Tony Traina and Mark Kauzlarich to discuss the December 2023 New York auction season, following mixed results from recent Hong Kong sales. The trio spent the day previewing watches at Sotheby's and Phillips, noting a cautious market atmosphere among specialists and collectors. They observe this represents something of a return to pre-COVID auction dynamics, where outcomes are less predictable and there's less guaranteed excitement around every lot.
The conversation focuses heavily on vintage Patek Philippe, particularly two pink gold reference 1518 perpetual calendars appearing at different auction houses—a rare occurrence that allows direct comparison. They discuss a Tiffany-signed yellow gold 1463 chronograph at Sotheby's, debating its appeal as a worn, lived-in vintage watch versus mint condition pieces. The group also examines watches from the Alan Hammerslough collection, a beloved collector parting with approximately 60 pieces including rare Panerai and military Rolex watches, with proceeds supporting his family.
Vintage Rolex receives significant attention, including a "John Player Special" Daytona reference 6241 in exceptional condition, various Submariners, and notably a rare "Space Dweller" Explorer 1016. The discussion touches on the persistent undervaluation of vintage Vacheron Constantin despite rarity and quality, with Tony championing a reference 4072 chronograph as his favorite piece. Throughout, the hosts debate what might serve as a bellwether for the current market—whether high-end rarities like the 1518s or more accessible pieces like a tropical dial Submariner or big red Daytona will better indicate market health.
Links¶
Transcript¶
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| Ben Clymer | Guys, welcome to another episode of Ben Clamber Presents. We are presenting the New York December 2023 auction season. We are coming off some pretty weird results, if you can even call them out. Results at all. In in Hong Kong, from our friends at Phillips and Christie's and other, we had the oak sale, which was tumultuous, I would say. Some of the the top lots not selling at all. Uh, then others doing okay. We had a traditional Christie sale, which did a little bit better, and then we had a Phillips sale, which did did did okay as well. Um, but now we're in New York. The world is a weird place right now. We spent this morning and this afternoon looking at Sotheby's and Phillips. What do we think, Tony? |
| Tony Traina | Tony. Ben, thanks for having me on the show again. I think to start it off, I think there's sort of uh a lot of cautiousness in the market. I think just talking to the specialists. Uh there's some good watches there that seem to have a lot of interest at both sales, but beyond that, a lot of sort of cautious talk about how much interest there is in the sales. That said, we saw a lot of good watches. I think we really focused on seeing vintage watches today, guys. Yeah. Which was cool. We saw some vintage stuff too, or some modern stuff too, I should say. Some RMs I was excited to see that we'll get into, I'm sure. Yeah. Um, but uh a lot of cautious talk, I think, in the in the sales rooms tod |
| Mark Kauzlarich | ay. Yeah. I kind of wonder if uh, you know, it was maybe a good thing for Phillips to get their uh one pass lot out of the way in Geneva. The solitary pass lot. Yeah. Single red sea dweller. Yeah. And it was I don't know uh how many years since they've had a pass lot and I think it's at some point it was bound to happen. Right. And and I happen to know that that watch did sell after the auction. Uh you know, it was bound to happen. I I know that they'll obviously wanna sell every single lot, but there was a part of me that thought, like, well, if you know you're not gonna get it in the room, don't push it too hard, don't try to find somebody because you're gonna have it happen at some point. The market seems to be heading that direction anyway, and it's sort of a an out |
| Ben Clymer | Yeah, and I I think that that's kind of what we're what you both of you guys are insinuating here. Like it's almost a return to pre-COVID pandemonium, right? Like this is like this is what auctions used to be like, which is like, okay, like there's some amazing top lots that you know the usual suspects or maybe some X factors will come in and and you know throw down on. But you don't really know what's gonna happen uh in until you get to the day of the sale. And that's exciting, I think, for a lot of us that are kind of casual or professional observers to all this stuff. Do |
| Mark Kauzlarich | you want to go ahead? Oh, I think the one disappointment for me looking sort of across everything and I'm I'm excited about the sales, but I think when the auction houses are feeling what we're feeling, they're trying to maximize every single lot and the amount of time that they put in and so I know for a fact that one auction house in particular decided nothing below five thousand dollar estimate. Nothing don't don't spend our time put that in in online sales um because there's there's only so much um time we're not going back to the days of 400 lots in an auction generally um which was a drag to be clear it was i don't want that i don't want that either i do want some of those like sneaky picks that you can pick up, but um but i think, you know, we're gonna sort of reach a middle ground on the on the two. Yeah, I I agree. And and then |
| Ben Clymer | we'll get into what we saw today. I think that there's this really challenging middle ground of like offering things that enthusiasts really like, like you guys, myself, our readers and listeners, and then also being able to m you know have things make economic sense for an auction. I remember somebody publicly suggested that Aurel host a uh Ger-le-Cult reverso auction, like a thematic reverso auction. And it was just like that, just like that would be very challenging to do for for obvious reasons. There's not that many interesting reversos out there that would that would inspire that much. It's not like Daytona or Daydate or anything like that. So you have one side of like offering things that aren't available elsewhere in these special auctions because it's a special format, and then having it make financial sense. So like I'm surprised that frankly people didn't come to that conclusion earlier that you kind of needed a a certain floor of value to to to go into that. Tony, take us down the list here. To me the reversal is the forgotten icon, but we'll leave that for another It's a total icon. Lenny Kravitz says |
| Tony Traina | so. No, it's it's a hundred percent an icon. I I own one as you know. It's a great watch. So we went to Sotheby's first today. We saw a bunch of watches there. I think we're gonna take it by brand a little bit, guys. So let's start with let's start with paddock. I think we focused on vintage paddocks. We saw fifteen eighteen there, we saw fourteen sixty-three there, some twenty-five-twenty-sixes,. Ben why don't you kick it off for us and what |
| Ben Clymer | stuck out to you from Sotheby's paddocks? Yeah. The the the highlight for me was the fourteen sixty-three brigade Tiffany. Right. So that watch is everything a vintage watch should be. Uh it's not perfect, which I think a vintage watch should not be, because I think like what's the point of being an old thing if it hasn't lived a life? Uh it is polished. The the dial has like a real warmth to it, and you know what you could call patina or dirt or whatever you want to call it. But the fact that it's a yellow gold watch, which to me is like quintessential vintage watch, plus Tiffany plus Brigade, is really very neat. And you know, this is not one of those, like, hey, fresh to market, like from the original family sitting there for 50 years in a drawer. It was sold quite publicly by Davide Parmajani, who's a great well-known dealer, who's in one of his catalogs. Um, so it's not, it's not, it doesn't have that kind of like fresh to market charm, but it's still just an incredible watch. And I've never seen another Tiffany 1463 like this anywhere. I've seen kind of the later series ones, a little bit like my 1968 Cartier sign 1463, which have smaller signatures, really bright white dials. Uh the stamping is in a different position, usually down below. This is a this is a proper vintage watch. And I think, you know, the the folks at at Sotheby say like, you know, that people are holding their cards pretty tight to the chest, but this is a very compelling watch. It just comes down to the number on this watch. I mean, this is a watch that I would love to own. It just would depend on the number. And I think gold, yellow gold, you know, worn vintage Patek is uh it's starting to pick up a little bit again, but it has not been the hottest thing in the world over the |
| Tony Traina | past five years. We could say that. You mentioned number. Do you want to talk numbers? I mean it's got an estimate of two to four hundred thousand dollars. Do you have any feel for what it's compelling at for maybe even |
| Ben Clymer | Uh I mean look if if I were in the market, I it for me it's under compelling now. I'm not saying it's actually gonna sell, but it's under three for sure. Um will it sell for that? Probably not. Um you know, I think it's special enough where uh it could go much higher. I think if the case were a little bit thicker, it could do serious numbers. I think but you know, I I'm not one of those guys that's super you know militant about unpolished cases like watches have lives, just like we we all do. Um I'm okay with a little bit of a polish on a watch. I just think like, you know, this is a really special thing. So to get a big number for a yellow gold 1463, uh, you're gonna need something pretty special in the case department. Um we'll talk about another fourteen sixty th atree Phillips later, um which you know, I would say is a little bit stronger in the in the case arena, but has other things going for for sure. But the fourteen sixty three J Tiffany Brigade, that that is a very me watch. It's a very compelling watch for sure |
| Mark Kauzlarich | . It's not one that I would have necessarily if I was in the market jumped at from photos and then I handled it. I said that to you in person, like I handled it a little bit more and the white dials that pop out a little bit more, they're they're a little more compelling uh on on paper but it's also the fact that it's been worn if I had a collection of watches in a similar price point I would actually feel comfortable wearing this out, wearing it around, meeting people, having something that's a little special, not feeling too precious about it versus other things because uh that I think that is a concern is you know, you if it's been worn, you it doesn't have to sit in the |
| Ben Clymer | and I think that that's you know my my the 1463 Cartier that I had, like that was the similar condition in in many ways in that like it was it was worn quite quite famously uh and you could wear it and like it felt good wearing it and you didn't have to baby it. And this fourteen sixty three is very much that. There are other watches around that are, you know, could sell for a lot more that you really I w I would be uncomfortable wearing 'cause like, oh shit, I just put the first scratch |
| Mark Kauzlarich | in this perfectly mint lug, you know. Or or even the dial, like if if the dial starts to pick up some sort of patina that it you didn't see before or you're worried about it and you're always looking at it, like, Oh, is that Dial? Did I did I do something? Did it was it too humid out there when I walked out the door one day or something? So I think that was a really compelling watch for me and I really I mean, like, who doesn't love brigade? Sure period. Tiffany is always interesting. We had a conversation about this at Sotheby's as where Tiffany was stamping on that day and what guy was doing the stamping and stuff like that. It it it does lend some sort of interest because it's always going to be a little different. And that can be scary to some some buyers, but that's another reason not not saying that auction houses have been infallible, but that's another reason that I do like seeing watches that have g |
| Ben Clymer | one through a lot of hands. Yeah. And as as you mentioned, like where they t stamped Tiffany, like I I've never researched this, so don't quote me on this, but like in my mind, now that I think about it, like the stamp up top is earlier, generally speaking, than stamps down below. So th there was a publicly available 1463 later, like 1968, 60, 67, 68, with the stamp down below. My Cartier stamp was down below. If you look at like a 25, 26 Tiffany, which are 50s watches, the stamp is up high. And so this watch had the stamp up high, which to me, as you |
| Tony Traina | Well there was that compelling Tiffany 2526 that I think just sold at at Phillips in Hong Kong for a good amount of money, I want to say, which is my transition into asking you, Mark, now that we've exhausted the 1463 conversation, if there's any other vintage paddocks you saw at Sotheby's that that really took you |
| Mark Kauzlarich | ? that was there and that one definitely s stood out. I've seen a weird number of them for a short amount of time that I've been in in the watch industry. Um it is a really still rare and special watch, but the one that's the watch, right? It's the watch. Um even to me, I would say I would probably lean more to 1518 over 2499 despite size and all these other factors, just because it is it is the originating watch. But I I it surprises me how many I've seen for how few there are And that one I think did stand out but it's it it does start to blend together a little bit. I don't know if uh if you I mean when you see them back to back that helps. Which we did today. Which we did and which which helps. But then you try to think back over the last year of maybe seeing a half dozen or more, um, what stands out. This one I definitely think was was a good one, despite not necessarily being like the strangest dial or anything like that. |
| Tony Traina | Yeah, I know for a fact, after talking to Sotheby specialists, some of the fact that so many 1518s have come up over the past few years originates from the fact that in 2021 in New York, they had that pink on pink 1518 that sold for about 10 million dollars, like one of the most expensive vintage watches ever sold. Ever. Right. And it was an absolutely me you know, probably the best pink f pink on pink fifteen eighteen on the planet. Yeah. I know for a fact some watches have come to Sotheby specifically since that consignment. Including this one, I believe. I think that might be true. I I can't know. I don't know about this one specifically. I know about the last pink on pink they sold uh in New York back in June. That that's the case. Um that that watch that sold for $10 million is probably the best watch I've ever seen in person, the best vintage watch I've ever seen in person. So nothing really compares to that, but it also set in a drawer for 70 years. So it's it's tough to compare. This one's not perfect, but as you were talking about with the 1463, um, it comes from the original owner. It's it's got a nice condition report, honestly documenting. It's been polished. The dial's not perfect, but it looks good. It's a good honest watch from I think it's the Kaplan family from the original owner. Uh you there's literally even a photo or a portrait that that they painted of the guy wearing the watch in the sixties or the seventies. Uh so you kind of know the entire history of the watch, the story of it coming to market. And for me, that's something you see less and less with vintage paddock in general, uh just knowing the entire sort of provenance and and this one hasn't traded hands and uh dealers haven't gotten their hands on it yet, which is something that remains sort of exciting to me. Well and it adds to sort of the legac |
| Mark Kauzlarich | y of these things too. I mean we, we were talking about earlier today the fact that like a number of years ago we thought that there were maybe eight r uh pink fifteen eighteens, and now there's fifteen is sort of the number. And and they they come out now N.ow I I do feel maybe a little bit for the family because uh or any family that would discover this, only so much that I could feel badly for somebody that all of a sudden discovers a million dollar watch. Sure. Um but you know, you're not gonna get the ten million dollars. And I and I wonder I often wonder how much they really understand that, like how much they're hoping or or whatever it is. But um I mean it's nice to have one more scholarship. I don't know I.' Ive've not seen all of them, so I can't rank 'em. Yeah. But it does help you understand what these things look like, what variations they've come in, that kind of thing |
| Ben Clymer | . Yeah, I think the the the delta between like a nine point five and a ten in terms of fifteen, eighteen is like the price is gonna be significant. You know the the the very the best in the world which ever i in in this case I think most would agree that the Tony is right here, the one that they sold previously is probably the best in the world. You're gonna get many X the the price at that level because you're talking about frankly the wealthiest, most educated watch consumers on the planet going for this stuff. It's not your average guy. It's not you, me, or you, you know, go going for this stuff. And so to have the very best 15-18, which you know, John Goldberger famously has said is kind of like it's it is his favorite watch and so many others of uh as well. Um you're gonna sell for from any X. But I I think it it's so fascinating because like that watch, which as you said comes from the original family, like that is an incredible thing S |
| Tony Traina | peaking on condition, that brings us to the vintage Rolex portion of today's Sotheby's discussion. I wanted to start us by talking about the John Player special that we saw. It's a 6241. Um Ben, what did you think of that watch? Killer |
| Ben Clymer | . That is fresh to the market, original family, just fucking deadmint. And it'll go, it should go crazy. I mean, it's one of the nicest I've seen in a long time. And this one deserves to go at auction. Um and just let let the market kind of price it as as it sees fit, you know |
| Mark Kauzlarich | . I love that you said that you love gold daytonas as opposed to most people that don't don't. I mean, I'm sure they are out there, but like that's the thing that I think was said a little bit when we were looking at this watch. It's like I hate to admit it, I'm that guy. No, a hundred percent. I I would kill to be that guy. It's such a good watch uh to me pops a lot more than like the lemon Paul Newman's uh do condition was fantastic. I think it's interesting because you look closely at these watches and you see, even if the condition is fantastic, the little ways that these watches differ from each other, even not necessarily polishing or whatever, just like these were to some extent not necessarily mass produced in the same way that we r mass produce in watches now. And so everything everything has its own little thing, but this is this is a gre |
| Ben Clymer | at watch. Yeah, we've seen we've seen a few, kind of like the Pink 1518s. We've seen a few JPSs come out over the past few years, including even at Sotheby's. This is right up there |
| Tony Traina | in my opinion. Well, so one of the last ones we saw was Sotheby's back in May. They they sold one and it went for about two million dollars. Uh Mark and I both were in the room actually, so we saw Rolex won that watch and it sold for two million dollars. So I don't think we're gonna expect that same price, but they've got a four to six hundred thousand dollar estimate on it on this. |
| Ben Clymer | I I think it's a seven figure watch, right? I I think I i if it's not, I think something the market has changed a lot. If it's not, you know, um so yes, I do think it's a it's a low seven figure watch. And |
| Mark Kauzlarich | I think the other thing about these is like this is a watch that you don't necessarily know who the people are in the room for a Rolex the same way that you do for you know, uh Patek or specifically like an AP or Vashron, that might be a high t ticket thing. Yeah. You could have some guy roll in uh,, you know, some kid in his thirties or twenties and Ferrari and decide that he's gonna drop two million dollars on this because he at least knows enough to know that this is a killer watch and uh one that's gonna stand out. The other fun thing about this is it's not a knock on this that it didn't come on the original bracelet, which I think is pretty cool. Like the condition is fantastic, partially. With no bracelet |
| Ben Clymer | marks on the back of the legs. Yep. Which is a selling point in many ways, you know. I mean you can get a bracelet wherever, easily. Uh |
| Tony Traina | I want to transition us to a slightly uh different portion of of Rolex and vintage dive watch and vintage military watch collection collecting about 60 of the watches in Sotheby's sale are coming from Alan Hammer Blur, who is kind of this legendary collector. He's been collecting watches since the 80s. He's been involved in the Panoristi community. So there's a lot of vintage panerai, vintage Rolex, modern panorai in this collection from from Hammer. He's in New York this week. Uh to sort of say goodbye to the watches and the collecting community that's been so so kind to him over the years. It's it's really sort of a cool story to to see and hear |
| Ben Clymer | Yeah, Allen is not a guy I know super well, but a guy I know of extremely well. I mean he's been around long before I was around. You know, really a like a a great bastion of of optimism within the watch collecting community and just beloved by all. I mean I've I've known him through Friends of Panorai and through Jeff Hass, who's now it's other bees, um, you know, for years and years and and really just like salt of the earth, great guy. Um and in in many ways it's exciting and a little sad of course to to see the watches go, but I think the the expertise and scholarship that that he's applied to his own collecting is is considerable for sure. And there's some killer watches in there |
| Mark Kauzlarich | . Some really cool watches. I mean, from an emotional standpoint, I can't help but root for all of them to absolutely crush every estimate, regardless of like, is it representative of the market, blah, blah, blah. You know, it''ss he he's talked about this money will go and to benefit his family. It's yeah, it's not for charity, but like his family n will need the support after he's gone and and I think you know for me I'm I'm rooting for for every one of those. I'm not necessarily a big Panorai fan or or lover of Panorai or even knowledgeable about Panorai. And um, you know, I I talked to Jeff Hess about that because he's he is the Panorai guy and um and apparently some really interesting watches in there. I wish I knew more just because I think it would actually inform my understanding of who this guy is and why he's interested in what he is, which is for me, like yeah, we all like the watches, but I r I really love hearing about why people love the things they love or why they do what they do. And and so it was interesting to see that, also just kind of som |
| Ben Clymer | ber at the same time. Yeah, I mean I think that this just to speak of the watches, like this the standout for me, there's a lot of great Rolex and never gonna touch on that, but the standout for me was the Pam twenty one, which is a wash that I won't name names, Rich Ford, looked at and was like, oh stupid Panorite and I was like, no bro, like this is a special thing. And like I I pulled it out for me to look at because you know like a lot of panoras look the same they all in fact look the same or many of them do and this is a watch I have lusted after for years and the PAM21 came out in the late 90s it's a platinum case. They made 60 of them. This watch is particularly difficult to find with a full set. It had two case packs and you know special boxes and blah blah blah. This hammer's watch, of course, has that plus plus plus. Uh that is a very compelling watch. If if you're into Panorai or if you're not, it's it's quintessential Panorai and it's early, you know, it's late nineties, so we're talking, you know, approaching thirty years ago. That's a really, really cool watch from the hammer colle |
| Tony Traina | ction. My pick was the uh Australian Navy, big Crown, 55-10. Yeah. I think when I asked Jeff Hess, who you had on a few episodes ago, you know, if if he's getting excited about a vintage sub like that, you know it's pretty cool. Yeah. I think it's cool for the watch, but it also comes with all these Australian Navy sort of miscellaneous things. There's a cigarette case, there's like nose pins or nose clips or something like that, field notebooks, all this crazy stuff that you just don't really find in a quote unquote watch set. So really cool to see all that stuff uh that that comes with the lot |
| Mark Kauzlarich | . Yeah, I thought that was great. I mean, uh I don't want to skip ahead too much, but that that sort of extra ephemera thing sort of makes me think of the one watch that I was I'm curious to see what is gonna happen. I d I don't know that I can prognosticate on it, but if I can skip ahead to the the Weems watch, uh the Admiral Bird Weems watch, that's got Admiral Byrd's flight logs, it's got all of these sort of associated things, and I've I've heard from some people that there's been a lot of interest from non-watch people, museums, those kinds of things, uh trying to suss out. I mean, what a what a watch that has no direct comps for a long gene weems um you know flight watch might might bring. I'm curious because I I like the wild cards. I mean you could show up and somebody could say, Oh, this is a ten thousand dollar watch or it's a million dollar watch. Right. And I think that that makes me think |
| Ben Clymer | of probably seven, eight years ago, there was this trend of like celebrity or provenance-driven watches doing better outside of watch auctions. They're like Steve McQueen's Monaco sold for like $795,000 at a like Hollywood memorabilia sale or something like that. Meanwhile, if you if you you know the watch that's sold at Anticorum sold for like two fifty. So we're talking three X. And it it the the dream for every watch auctioneer is to find that thing that crosses into pop culture or just c you know, political culture or whatever, Paul Newman, have you. Um and you know, th this watch could do that. I mean it it may or may not, like it's not Paul Newman, it's it's it's not Stephen Queen, but it it's still a compelling thing that that will appe |
| Mark Kauzlarich | al to different types of people. Aaron Powell I would think a lot of aviation people have probably dumped a lot of money in their planes and maybe wouldn't have the estimate range of 100,000 to 200,000 to buy a uh aeronautical sort of hero's watch, but um I don't know. It it could it could do that potentially. I I just I have no idea. Well the my the my one favorite thing and we didn't get to see the movement but apparently the movement is stamped extra and even Lange doesn't exactly know what that meant in the in the case of that movement. There's no like documentation of that. And I I I like little stories like that. I mean w we've just lost some of this and that's why it's important to like document these watches as best as we can and when we find out something to share it. Yep. Because sometimes these things get lost of time if you don't. Yep. Let let's rattle off |
| Tony Traina | a few other watches that we liked at Sutherwees before we before we move on. I wanted to ask you for one wild card pick in the indie modern neo vintage, whatever else we haven't covered from Sotheby's. That was mine too. That was yours too. |
| Ben Clymer | It's uh I mean I've said this many times, but like the RM thirty-five to me is then it is nothing a dollar. It is the RM I've kind of like secretly lusted after, not so secretly. The RM27 is actually the one that I want, but that's a million dollars plus. This is the baby Nadal. You don't see them that often at auction. You see him on chrono 24, you see him through gray market guys, whatever. But to just an RM35 is like that, that is a very neat RM uh that is quintessential RM and they had one in at Sotheby's beater RM |
| Tony Traina | , right? It's a beater RM. Yeah. I've never seen one in person. I've listened to nerds like you talk about it on Hodiki Radio and whatever else and just the the the mind I was gonna say mindfuck but I don't wanna You can swear here Tony it's okay. The mind fuck of picking that thing up five grams or whatever it is and putting it on the wrist. Uh I didn't think I would like it as much as I did, but what a cool lot. That is the secret of |
| Ben Clymer | RM. Like, you know, the the guys like us here with the shawl collars and the glasses and such, like we're like, ah, RM isn't us. And then you pick one up, it's like, wow, this is actually really, really cool. You can't help |
| Tony Traina | it. Well, listen, that's a good place to leave the Sotheby's discussion. I want to get us over to Phillips where we went uh after that. Yep. I think we're gonna start just with with vintage paddock again, sort of circling back. We saw some of the same references. Honestly, we saw 15, 18 rows there. Uh we saw 1463, some other stuff. Ben anything in Yeah, I mean look, the we'll we |
| Ben Clymer | 'll just touch briefly on the 14 or on I'm sorry, on the 1518 pink because we have to. Like this is when watches are silly, right? Like these are both of these watches. To see either fifteen eighteen, any fifteen eighteen is amazing. Does he two in pink gold, basically thirty blocks away from each other on the same day is just bananas, right? I mean we said, okay, let's say there's fifteen, so we saw one seventh of the world's population of fifteen eighteen pinks today |
| Mark Kauzlarich | ? Yeah. I mean, how do you for me it's how do you process this? And I know like this can sometimes be a criticism of coverage or whatever, but how do I process something that I have no realm of understanding of spending that amount of money? Um, you know, you have to be very critical and sort of view it a in a bubble. I would I don't know. Um I don't know if we want to say which one we felt more strongly about. You can say that. I mean I I would say if I was if I was buying and I had had the funds, I would be going for Sotheby's all day. I I don't know even necessarily that Phillips example is a consolation prize or anything like that, but I think that is something that you have to think about is there are probably people out there that are gonna be bidding on one and if they don't get it then it goes beyond what they felt that they would spend, they know that they might have a backup and I think I just wonder how that impacts the the over overall market when you have two together. I don't know if you have thoughts about which one |
| Tony Traina | or yeah it's interesting that the Sotheby's one has an estimate of eight hundred to one point five, I believe, whereas the Phillips one is one point two to two point four. And I think we were all taken more by the Sotheby's watch, uh, condition-wise, and as I was speaking about sort of just the originality of the provenance, too, is something that makes it compelling for me as well. Uh the the one at Phillips is well documented as well, it's set in a private collection for the past 20 years when it it came to auction in the early 2000s. And I think that that sort of sale is well documented and all of that type of stuff. So two super well documented reference or examples of of a the most famous reference there is in vintage watches, but the Sudhebees one I think is more compelling if you're just looking at them in a vacuum. Yeah. What else do we see in the paddock world at Phillips? The thirty nine seventy four I think is just a crazy watch, right? The minute repeater um is is just a crazy thing |
| Ben Clymer | to see. The thirty nine seventy-four is interesting to me, A, because those have really starting to have a moment. Tom Brady has one now, apparently. I saw an Instagram. That's um, which |
| Mark Kauzlarich | is neat. Uh this is the second one I've seen this year, which was surprising to me. There was one in Monaco, and I just like 3975. Those wat |
| Ben Clymer | ches were really stone cold for a long time. They would sit at like Michael Safty's shop up here in Midtown and just like, who's buying these things? You know? Now they're really hot. This watch is neat because it was born out with a silver dial. It comes with an additional Doray or kind of like shaded dial, slightly less, less bright dial. Um, what's also neat about this is it's an it's a naked watch, as we call it. So that there's no box, there's no papers for a 3974, which is kind of kind of crazy. Like where do those go, you know? Uh and in many ways, like if you want a 3974, but you don't want to pay, you know, big, big, big money, this could be a great opportunity. And like there's, you know, there's one side of me that's like, oh, like should I, should I do that? You know, like it's a dream watch that like I'm I'm probably never gonna be able to afford, you know, when there's a full set or certainly in in any other metals. Um so this is kind of compelling, but at the same time also, do you want to put that kind of money into a watch that that's naked |
| Mark Kauzlarich | ? It's surprising to me because I I can't imagine a world in where this wasn't you know a a watch that people were paying attention to. I to me like I just wasn't around at that time. I also wasn't you know buying buying watches or I'm still not buying watches at this level but like it does check a lot of the boxes and and and so I mean it's who knows maybe this was you know a a young Ed Sheeran using the using the box for rolling papers or whatever and threw it out threw it in the trash. You don't know but like that doesn't bother me at all if the watch is good and interesting and I mean we listen to the chime. I thought it sounded wonderful |
| Ben Clymer | . I'll say this like were really not they were always well regarded, but they were not well bought and sold. Like they were just like, okay, like I'll get the 5970, I'll get the the the whatever 5140, whatever. So this is the next version of that, the high-end version of that. And I just think also it's like the the watch, you know, we were talking about this a little bit before. Like, there's so many cool watches that again, the guys like us want to say, like, oh, like this 40-72 Vashron at this price, like you should absolutely buy that. And then you do buy it, and then you know, your tastes change, or you need the money for something else, and you try to sell it, you're like, Oh, wait a minute, like I'm the only guy out here that that wants this watch at this price. And I'm not saying that that's the case for a 3974 naked, but there's a lot more people out there. I mean, so on an episode that will come next week, John Reardon said, look, if you're buying a 5970 or 3970 and it doesn't come with the full, full set, people don't want it at all. Right. And we're talking second case backs and you know, all that extra jazz. And so I do think on the paddock buyer in particular, unless you have a bounty of of watches, you you probably do want a full set 3974 |
| Mark Kauzlarich | . If you're sp- I mean, look, no matter what, it's gonna cost you six figures. I mean, is this like the don't don't settle on condition kind of situation too, like you know, buy buy the best you can afford and if you can't afford the best then don't don't necessarily buy it. |
| Ben Clymer | Uh I'm I'm not saying that. Uh to to me it's like uh again the like the the market for thirty nine seventy four J is there's not that many people out there buying that watch. Like there's just not, you know, relative to a Daytona or anything like that. So, you know, if you want to be able to sell it, you want to be able to sell it quickly and without without any excuses. And I think a naked watch. There will be some excuses. It will be priced that way for sure. Um, but it it it would be a challenging one for me, |
| Mark Kauzlarich | I think. Two two watches on the opposite end of the spectrum for me in terms of price that are like there might not be a huge market for them, but they're pretty great. Uh the sector dial reference 96 I thought was great. Again, like not a huge ticket watch. But made me happy to see it. Indirect center seconds, which I thought was interesting. And I I've just, you know, I'm happy to see that. I've always been looking for an interesting reference ninety-six. That's cool. Opposite end of the spectrum for things that there's probably not a ton of buyers for, but we'll maybe I'm hoping get a good price is there was a pocket watch that I was honestly very happy to see everybody go around the table and and handle this pocket watch and chime it. Um eight four four uh Patek perpetual calendar, inline perpetual calendar, or an American American perpetual calendar pocket watch. Yeah. With repeater. With repeater. And uh and in white gold. In white gold. There's two known. The other one is buyer sign in a in a uh a prominent collection. And um this sold in 2016 for four hundred and seventy two thousand Swiss francs. Uh I hope that it it continues to do that. But again, like if you're buying that watch you better better darn love it and and sit on it because uh it's gonna be hard to sell. There's a couple people in the world and and one of them already has one. And |
| Ben Clymer | thankfully there's only two of them, so it's not like you're gonna have a lot of options. So if you want it, like now now's the time. And this is also ex Jean Cloud Beaver, |
| Mark Kauzlarich | right? Yep. Yep. Um I think you know, not sure what the bump on provenance like that is like. It's not like I said it did make me really happy to see you guys actually enjoying pocket watches despite how much uh shit I get for being |
| Tony Traina | the pocket watch guy. I don't know from who. I never gave you shit about that. But guys, as fun as the paddock discussion has been, I'm a bit more of an everyman, so I wanted to talk about uh a different brand right now. Uh probably my favorite watch of the day was a Vachron 4072 chronograph at Phillips. It had a beautiful, a beautiful two-tone dial, sharp gold case and a matching gay frare bracelet. One of my favorite references, no one really cares about it because it's a Vachron, because it's 34 millimeters, because it's usually in precious metals, but uh in person the thing is gorgeous. It wears like a dream. Uh, you guys can have your paddocks, your complicated paddocks, your 130s. I'll take the 4072, and it's got a low estimate of $15,000. 15 to 30, right? 15 to 30k. I think uh I think it'll blow that out of the water. I won it in our mock auction for forty thousand dollars, let's say yesterday. And let me tell you, I still think I got a steal after seeing it in person. Um it's a gorgeous watch, and it's one of my favorite references. Yeah, and I think also so we |
| Ben Clymer | we were kind of toured around the the collection uh by Paul Boutros and others and Paul's somebody that has written for our site, I've known him for a long time. When he gets genuinely excited about a watch, that's a very good sign. And this guy was thrilled over that. He's a Vashron guy. You know, he said he spent some time kind of chasing this one, comes from South America, I believe. Uh this is a real deal, authentic, you know, kind of original family untouched 4072. If it goes anywhere near even the high estimate, I mean it's it a's a we've been saying this for years, but we're gonna say it again. It's bargain. Vintage Vashron remains a bargain. |
| Mark Kauzlarich | This is I but I mean, let's be honest. I think this is a Phillips estimate and not necessarily uh representative estimate. Is how I read it. I mean, maybe that's just tinted by the fact that I just handled the watch and one you said thirty four millimeters, that it did not strike me as as that in person, which goes to show how much uh it wears bigger, right guys? It wears bigger. I hate saying it, but it's a |
| Ben Clymer | great, great watch. Yeah, the 4072 is a f like a really flat case and flat watches tend to wear a little bit bigger. Um, but it's it's an absolute killer. I'm I'm right there with you on that. Do you gu |
| Tony Traina | ys want to talk about the Vachron market any further than that? I think it's sort of an interesting discussion we've had before. U |
| Ben Clymer | h challenging. It's really ch I'm vintage Vashron again. I I mean as long as there's been a hodinky I've been saying vintage Vashron is like a great deal, right? In in particular like the nineteen fifties, nineteen forties stuff. It goes up it, it goes down, goes left, it goes right, but it it remains just a s a secondary player on on the vintage scene. It just does. That's because it's not paddock? Yeah, because it's not paddock. That that's why. Yeah. Again, like the the I mean look, even vintage paddock. I mean, take take the 1518s out of it and look at 1463s, look at 3448s, look at 2526s. Like these watches, air quotes should be the thing that everybody starts wants to work towards. But you kind of skip right over that. Like if you're a mega collector, you might have some modern Patek or whatever, and then you you dip a toe for a 1518 or a 2499 or like a seriously fuck you watch. And you skip right over the 1463s, the 2497s, J's, and sometimes R's. Um, you skip right over that stuff. Um and I think, you know, if you're skipping over that stuff at in the paddock world, you're definitely skipping over the Bacheron stuff |
| Mark Kauzlarich | . Which is too bad because I mean I think there's there's an argument to be made um that a lot of these watches are oftentimes rarer in s in some cases just because of yeah. I mean um so you know I've seen it at auction I've uh the a couple times this year. There were some earlier in in uh at specifically the Monaco auction um where just it's like okay nobody nobody's gonna pay for an ultra thin minute repeater from them. That's a fantastic, fantastic shape. Uh sold after under the reserve to somebody in the room. Uh but yeah, it's too bad. But then you see a watch like that that uh chronograph and it makes you think that maybe you have everything wrong. Yeah, well yeah, or you just have it all wrong and like wait, why why am I not caring? But uh as you mentioned, sometimes these things are hard to get out from under if you m move on to something Yeah, I mean it's it's a it's fool me once, sh |
| Ben Clymer | ame on me type of situation. Fool me twice, you know. It's uh it' it'ss one of those things where it's just like okay like I've I've I love ventured bacheron I've owned quite a few uh but at the end of the day and I know many people like this it's just like all right even if it is X and you think it's a great deal try to sell it on the secondary market. You know, and it's just like if you have a pet tech, if you have a Rolex, you might not get exactly what you're asking, but there will be liquidity. There will be the opportunity to sell it. Vintage Rachel, it's a much different world. It just it just is. I'm not saying it's right or wrong. In fact, actually I will say it's wrong, but it's it just is. And sometimes you just can't fight with what what just is |
| Tony Traina | . Yeah, you know what's interesting is I have seen sort of increased interest in their neo-vintage stuff, their ultra-thin QPs from the 90s and and stuff like that that's very similar to uh the vintage AP QB. But don't |
| Ben Clymer | you cheap that like and like you get these guys that are on Instagram and kind of pumping this stuff up because they're so cheap. Like these v the veterans we're talking about here are not that cheap, right? Like these are not sub |
| Tony Traina | -10,000 watches. No, it's true. A few years ago you could have gotten one of these ultra-thin QPs for the same price as say a steel uh vintage Vachron, whatever from the 50s, and I think the QP is a lot easier. It's an easier story to tell, I think. Uh, especially when a 3940 is 40 or 50 or whatever it would have been at the time. It's a it's an easier story to tell in the value, and that's why they have increased in value. So it is it's a bit of a different thing. And I think telling the story of neo-vintage complicated watchmaking is is a different market to to |
| Ben Clymer | try to explain. Yeah the the last thing I'll say about Vashron and then we can move on is I I think the the challenge there is because and Paul Boutres can fact check this for me later, but I I believe most of the watches made before a certain year, forget the year, are unique, like effectively unique. So whereas with paddock, you can say, oh, I've seen a 130 with a sector dial or this long signature or whatever. Like there's a market for that because there's been five similar sold in the past. But Vetron that doesn't really exist. There are similar watches, but never the same. And as you mentioned very, very correctly, they are way rarer than than vintage paddock by like pr pretty wide margin. So like you have even less of them on the market |
| Mark Kauzlarich | . But you want you want that like safety blanket. You want to know what the market is, yeah. Yeah. When you're spending that much money you want to know what the comps are. Yeah. Uh oh did I overspend on that? And I mean I think even even in our fantasy auction the other day, like I had that same feeling as without real money is like oh did I just get goaded into overspending on something? Well, okay. If you're talking about a watch that the asking price is two hundred fifty thousand dollars for a minute repeater or something like that, how do you know that that you made the |
| Tony Traina | right decision? You don't. Yeah. There's a thin line between uh rarity and obscurity, someone once told me, and I think that that lesson applies here. Indeed. Anything else that you guys saw at Phillips? I could talk about RM some more, but Ben, I want to kick it over to you first. That was |
| Ben Clymer | a great RM at Phillips, too, actually. That was a really early one. That was an RM2. Let's see. What else did I see at Phillips? They had another nice Vash one 4178. We'll just keep pulling on the Vas Oh, they had that 1463 pink uh Serpico Elino, uh, which is you know, that's a really neat spec of a 1463, and I think a little stronger case than the the Tiffany one over at Sotheby's. I I will say that the Tiffany Yellowgold Brigade had a little bit more charm for me. Uh it could just be it felt different different than than most of the other fourteen six |
| Mark Kauzlarich | ty threes you see out there. Little like wabi sabi kind of like whether it's the patina or the signature at the top or whatever it was, like that that made that just an interesting 1463 at Sotheby's, but like it's a different buyer to me if if you're if you're buying the Surpico sign 1463, you're you're probably somebody that wants just a little bit more perfection out of the whole thing. Yeah. Oh actually |
| Ben Clymer | now that I think about it, there are two other watches at Phillips. Actually a few other watches at Phillips. A They have some watches at Phillips. They have some watches. Uh Nao |
| Mark Kauzlarich | ya Hita. Yep. They have over there. Yeah. Uh how you like that? No, I think it's I think it's gonna be one of my picks maybe for overlooked watch for the year. Uh just his his work is really interesting and I'm I'm coming around in conversation to that. But um I I think it's a really great watch. Uh |
| Ben Clymer | and impossible to get at retail effectively. Like they're selling like the they do the raffle thing and you get like, you know, there's like ten of these watches allocated per year or something like that |
| Mark Kauzlarich | . Yeah. So I mean I I think also that's a low a relatively low estimate range, which is exciting. Yeah, it's meant to entice people potentially into buying it, but I'll be curious to see what the market decides is is that opposite end of the spectrum. Yeah, that's where I was going to do. Not everybody gets to see a space dweller every day. So I thought that was pretty pretty fantastic to see. |
| Ben Clymer | Space dweller's neat. I I own one, which is public information. Um they are like I said, not everybody gets to see one every day. I I happen to. They are so rare, so neat, so uh not understood. We don't know, nobody knows the history of these things at all. Like there were some dials at auction a while back. Th wereere watches that we believe became you know made. This watch, uh the the lore is that they were sold in Japan, you know, 1955. I'm sorry, 1965, 1966 through seven. This watch was serviced in Japan, so lending some credence to that, but at the end of the day, we don't know. And on the paperwork, we don't frankly even know if that dial was in that watch when it was service. I'm not saying it wasn't, to be clear, but we don't know any of that. The service does not indicate what dial was in there. It does not say space dweller on the service. Um but it also doesn't say explorer on the service. Correct. Correct. Th these are really tricky watches. And again, like you're coming from somebody who bought one many years ago and continues to own it. I think these are incredibly special watches, kinda no matter of the story. Uh it's no different than like did the Paul Newman dial that's in so and so exist there when new it kind of is is irrelevant. You're paying for the dial. And a space dweller dial is the absolute coolest |
| Tony Traina | dial. We do know that it sits in the serial range of sort of known space dwellers, if you will, so that at least is sort of correct, uh, which is good to see. But yeah, it's probably the coolest 1016 dial I've ever seen. I love the honeycomb dials as well. Yeah, I'm wearing a 1016 right now, but it's a boring old mat dial and I feel that way even more so after seeing that space dweller. But it's it's one it's probably the most beautiful ten sixteen dial. I I saw the albino one that Phillips sold back in May. Yep. If this space dweller doesn't sell for if it doesn't blow that out of the water, I'm gonna I'm gonna throw a fit because it's it's beautiful |
| Ben Clymer | . It should. And a g again, Jeff Jeff Hess and I talked about explorers on on our podcast together. And the the explorer, you know, is the choice of gentlemen such as yourself. I've owned a few. Like they really thoughtful guys tend to buy these washes, but they never bring big money. You know, when I when I say big, I mean above 200,000, like all this money is big, but when you when you see standard stock and trade, you know, guilt, whatever, explorer dial subs trading for four or five, whatever. You see mil subs in the three, four, five range. Like a a a really, really special explorer 1016 space dweller should be two fifty-three hundred in my not so humble op |
| Mark Kauzlarich | inion. Yeah, I was gonna say I mean I I would have gone even higher, but again, this is all imaginary money, but like 325, 350, I would just just at this point for me, it's like that would be the one. Uh I w what else? I I've come around to explorers. I used to not be a ten sixteen guy and now I think I've you know, Rich Fortin in the corner is cajoled me enough times and and just beat it into me. But uh I like if why if you have the ability, why buy anything else? Like get the one and and be done. Yep. Agree |
| Tony Traina | . The most expensive sort of explorer family watches I can think of are some basically pre-explorers that sold last fall. Uh low 200s, I think. Rolex bought one of them. Uh they had kind of Everest Provenance basically. So that's basically the highest we've seen. Uh I don't think the space dweller will touch that, but just for reference, that's the most expensive sort of explorer family watch I can I can think of. But before I let you guys go, this is my show now, I guess, Ben. Great. Um before we before we leave it here, I I wanted to ask you guys if you had a favorite watch that you saw tod |
| Ben Clymer | ay. There's some nice 25-26s out there that I really liked. There was a watch that I was really looking forward to see at Sutherwheels called a 3428, which is basically like a twenty it is a twenty five twenty six with the up for the next generation. Yeah. Exactly, yeah. From the early sixties instead of fifties. That was pulled from the online sale for for some reason. Uh we'll come back to that one. But that one was the one I was probably most excited to see. I'll be honest, the the 1463 J Brigade Tiffany, like that's that's my kind of thing. You know, that is that is, I'm a Tiffany guy. Um from New York, as you know. A worn watch. Like the super minty stuff never really appeals to me. It's just kind of boring. Like that feels like a collector that's just collecting to collect, not to own and wear. Uh, that was a really compelling thing. John player special. I I I just have to I you're right. You win you win that one actually. No, I'm nox is amazing |
| Mark Kauzlarich | . It it's fantastic and and I am a big bracelet guy. Like per I spent time thinking about bracelets for wa watches that like how much time you spent thinking about bracelets. I I would say like I spent probably a good thirty percent of watch related thinking time thinking about bracelets and braces. Yeah. No, I mean like I I think it's you know, or at least if I'm going to pick a wash to wear generally across the board, I'll I'll wanted a bracelet or a beads of rice or something like that. I'll take that all day, every day of the week, three hundred sixty five days of the year. I'll take that. And yet you chose the wash without a bracelet. No, and I know. That's what I'm saying. So that's that just goes to show how great that watch is. Now if I wanted to wreck the back of the lugs, I could find a bracelet and put it on, but yeah. |
| Tony Traina | Yeah. Tony? As established, I'm a bit of an everyman, so all I need is that simple Vashron 4072. Uh as I'll remind you, the estimate was fifteen to thirty. You guys chose watches well into the six figure. Okay, o |
| Mark Kauzlarich | kay, but but can I can I put like a two hundred thousand dollar floor or something like that. Because I want to I want to see if you were just going all out. No |
| Tony Traina | , no, no. It's my favorite watch uh of the entire of the entire sale weekend. Um you know as a Chicagoan I'm not much of a Tiffany guy either. This the the signature just doesn't do that. much for me The JPS is is a cool watch. That was in beautiful condition, but if I can get something like the 4072 for for that cheap, why not, baby? Are you gonna bid on that watch? |
| Ben Clymer | No. We we picked our favorites effectively. So which which watch do you think is is kind of the most the the the greatest bellwether for the entire watch market right now? Is it the JPS? Is it the Pink 1518? Are those a little bit too too too big dog to to kind of represent the market at at large. Is it you know Phillips has a really nice mint six two six three big red, which to me I've actually I think described as the bellwether of the vintage market. Is it that |
| Mark Kauzlarich | ? That would have been my pick, but now I'd look like I'm just copying what you're saying. So I don't I don't know. I'm right, I'm right, Mark. I I think you know this might be not necessarily a bellwether of the the highest end of the vintage market because I have a sense that like things like fifteen eighteen or fourteen sixty three are gonna stick relatively in a range that they're known for. But I would say maybe uh actually we didn't talk about it. Cartier Benoir that was at Sotheby's that had uh provenance from Charlie Chaplin giving it to his wife. Like, okay, how much people are people willing to spend on uh, you know, sort of a mid low estimate watch, uh, below thirty thousand dollar estimate and pay for the provenance? Like like, how are people gonna feel? Like yes, it's it's not representative of every single benoir, but it gives me a sense of like, okay, are people gonna pay up for this kind of care? Or or are they not? Ye |
| Tony Traina | ah. I've got a good one for you, I think. Uh there's a tropical dial 5512 submariner at Sotheby's. It's actually from the same collector that has that 1463 that you keep talking about, which I think kind of shows the sort of level of this submariner, uh, some guy that's buying brigade Tiffany signed paddocks would be interested in in this sub. It's it's on a Jubilee bracelet. But it's it's a really nice watch. The case is nice and the dial is obviously beautiful. Uh, you know, again, Hess was really excited about it and he's sort of the the Submariner guru. So if he's excited about it, I think it'll be interesting to see how uh a good Rolex Submariner like that does on to see what it says about the market. I think the estimate is five hundred fifty to a hundred, I should say. Yeah. So we'll we'll see. But I think that's a good one. It is. That I mean let's be clear, that's a spicy estimate for |
| Mark Kauzlarich | a Submariner. Yeah, and I also think that there was the the fifty-five thirteen that they had at at Sotheby's as well that like Comex dial. Okay. So that that's a little extra sauce there. Will people continue paying up for that? Do people want extra pro uh provenance with how it was used, how it was not used. I mean that's again like if you're taking uh a watch plus that is still not a fifteen eighteen or something, but like looking for watches with a little bit extra, that might be an interesting one to watch as well. Yeah, I mean look, |
| Ben Clymer | th th this is the I think that for me it probably is a six two sixty big red because it's very easy to understand. It's a full set, it's a good watch. But I I think uh I think weirdly the things that are are probably most telling, you you know, at Phillips in particular, you usually get this kind of like auction bump where like you can go to Chrono 24 and buy the same watch for a little bit less. A 15202, a 5711, like the most basic watches ever, like that I think will be a really good indicator of where things are. Is there still hype around the market where you you feel like can't get a fifteen two oh two or an hour or sixteen two oh two at auction or a a at retail, then maybe it'll do well. I don't know. So we have uh Sotheby's coming up tomorrow, which would be Thursday, December seventh, and then Phillips is over the weekend Saturday, Sunday. These are public auctions. I encourage you guys to go check them out. Go check out the previews. It's one of the best ways to learn about watches. And we will see you next week with our good friend, Mr. John J. Reardon, talking about vintage Patek Philippe. |