Ben Clymer Presents: 05 – The 2023 Fall Auction Episode With Rich Fordon And Tony Traina¶
Published on Fri, 3 Nov 2023 17:00:00 +0000
It's auction season again, and we're breaking down the trends, mega lots, and our favorite sleeper picks from this weekend's auctions and more.
Synopsis¶
In this episode of Ben Clymer Presents, Ben hosts a discussion with Hodinkee colleagues Tony Traina and Rich Fordin about the November 2023 auction season. The conversation picks up from the previous episode's discussion about vintage Rolex auction performance and delves into the current state of the watch auction market in Geneva and beyond.
The three discuss several key themes: the notable absence of certain hyped modern watches like the Tiffany blue dial Nautilus, the proliferation of independent watchmakers' pieces (particularly multiple Dufours, George Daniels, and Jorn watches), and what this abundance signals about market conditions. They analyze significant lots including the Marlon Brando GMT (previously sold in 2019 for $1.95 million), vintage Patek Philippe references like the rare 2526 white gold with enamel dial, and important independent pieces like the Rexhep Rexhepi CC1 black dial.
A central topic is the market correction from the 2020-2021 peak, with discussion of two major collectors liquidating portions of their collections simultaneously. The group debates whether this signals a broader market shift or simply personal timing. They note that modern watches have clearly declined from peak prices, with decreased velocity in vintage Rolex despite relatively stable pricing. Rich Fordin observes that vintage Rolex hasn't dropped significantly in price but rather in transaction speed, with serious collectors still willing to pay established prices. The episode concludes with observations about auction house strategies, the importance of looking at what's NOT being sold, and an invitation for listener questions for a future Q&A episode.
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Transcript¶
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| Ben Clymer | Everybody, welcome to a new episode of Ben Clammer Presents. We finished last episode with our good friend Jeff Pest talking about vintage Rolex and how things were or were not performing at auction. So we thought it would be kind of a nice segue into a November 2023 auction discussion with my my dear friends and colleagues, Mr. Tony Traina over there. Hey Tony. Hey Ben, thanks for having me on your show. Of course. And Mr. Rich Fordin, how are you? Hey Ben. Good. How are you? Good. Are you wearing a double-breasted jacket right now? I am. I'm a lot more formal than everyone else. I I appreciate that. I respect that great. Yeah. Gotta bring it for you. In indeed. Uh so we are just a few days away from uh from the kickoff of the auction season in November. We had Monaco Legends, which Jeff and I referred to briefly. But now we're kind of into the mainstay of Geneva auctions, which is Phillips, Sotheby's, Christie's, et cetera, Anticorum. You know, there's a lot to talk about here. I'm gonna I'm gonna kick it over to Tony to just kind of give us a brief overvieww of how you're vieing the this auction season |
| Tony Traina | . Yeah, it's it's exciting. There's a lot of huge lots up both on the independent side and on the vintage side of things. I wrote about the 6062, which is like my favorite vintage Rolex reference. Ben, I know it's one of yours as well briefly. Uh, because there are five of them coming up over the next few months. I'm excited to see how all of those perform. A couple of them have already hammered for for big numbers. So it's kind of cool to compare and contrast the different models, condition, and then how they're all performing uh at auction. But beyond vintage, there's a lot of big independent stuff. A couple of private collectors are having single owner sales in Geneva and then following Matt in Hong Kong, the beginning of the Oak Collection, which we featured just a year ago or so on Talking Watches when he was in Switzerland, right? Um so it'll be exciting to see some of that stuff coming up for sale. Uh it's the Zaman collection in Geneva that's kind of kicking off the single owner stuff. The Brando GMT is there, the DeFor Sonnerie, things that we saw on the market just in the past few years So it'll be interesting to see how some of those perform. The market, as you and Jeff has kind of talked about, is in a significantly different place than it was in 2020 and 2021. So it'll be interesting to contrast how some of that stuff performs as well over the next few weeks here. |
| Ben Clymer | I I think the the interesting thing and you're you're totally right like the market is uh softer we'll say than certainly 2021 uh and and twenty twenty, but I think it's also it it could be stronger than it was in twenty nineteen. And I think like there's everything relative to the peak, and then there's everything relative to the pre-COVID world. And I think we're about to see kind of what that that means. And I think we'll start with the Brando watch, which is like it, there's, there's one of these, right? This is not like there's five simplicities coming up, which there are, or not like a few Roger Smiths or a few George Daniels watches, which there are. There's one Marlon Brando-owned GMT, which has a Dremel engraving on the back, no bezel, worn in Apocalypse Now, uh, or around Apocalypse Now, James but and by James Stacy. Yeah, James is behind the camera over here. So I mean this is one that like is really going to, I think, be a kind of a bellwether for where the world is today. So that watch sold last in 2019, right? Rich or Phillips Game Changers. Phillips Game Changers, so 2019. So that's pre-COVID, right? So before the the air quotes hype that so many of us, including myself, referred to. And what did that watch bring uh in twenty twenty nineteen? We're gonna look that up right now for everybody |
| Tony Traina | . Rich, you don't know off the top of your head? I do not. I got the sale, I don't have the number. I think it was one point nine million. But I'm gonna check. It didn't have that James Stacy provenance three years ago. So that adds a few million. Which will add a little bit of money to it. Uh we have to say this makes for great radio. One point nine five million in twenty nineteen all in. And the estimate this time around is one to two million Swiss francs. Right. It's at Christie's this time. So we'll see. Obviously, they seem to have strong ambitions for it because that's that's a strong estimate, right? I think it was in excess of one million dollars when Phillips had it a few years ago. I don't know. Does it make it less exciting for you as a collector now that |
| Ben Clymer | we we saw it just four years ago and and here it is again? Yeah, I I I think it does. I mean I think that this this was a watch that was kind of like air quotes lost for for many years. And so when you discover something, when when we collectively discover something, there is just like an inherent excitement saying, wow, this is the first time this is available to the collector community. Now this watch, we know exactly where it is, we know the name of the person who owns it. We know what it sold for last time, it it is less exciting. It doesn't make it any less valuable, right? And I think, you know, the the you know the the economic situation of of the folks that may have wanted this watch between 2019 and 2023 may have changed dramatically, positively or negatively. So maybe all of a sudden there's two guys that didn't have money in 2019 that now all of a sudden do, and now it's a five million dollar watch. Or inversely, you know, maybe because the the sheen has worn off a little bit of a vintage Rolex, maybe it's worth half that. I I I don't know. And I think that, as I said, will kind of be a bellwether for for the vintage Rolex market in in some |
| Tony Traina | ways. The one thing I wanted to mention is that uh now that I'm looking at it, I remember watching that auction in 2019. It was an excruciating, like 20 minutes of bidding. It took forever for the thing to sell. I don't know if that's any indication of of interest or lack thereof at the high high end. Yeah. The other thing I did want to mention is I'm not sure Rolex was as active at auctions four years ago as we've seen them be over the past few sales. I wrote about it when I was in Geneva last cycle, and they bought and won three or four watches, most notably the record setting Milgaus that sold for like two million dollars. So if they decide to get involved, um there you know, there's no t there's no telling how high it it could go. |
| Ben Clymer | Right. I I think that that's kind of the X factor with with sports Rolex is if if Rolex Geneva is involved, then all of a sudden all all bets are off. But it also doesn't it doesn't create a new market for for things. Like like Jeff Hess and I, you know, briefly discussed last week, the the idea that like another 6542 or 6541 are worth is worth that kind of money is just not not reality, right |
| Rich Fordin | ? I think you're right. I think this watch doesn't concern me as much as the quantity of say Dufour's or Daniels in this auction season does. This has a lot more going for it outside of the merits of the watch itself. So looking at this as a as a marker for vintage Rolex, I think might be a little scary. Um, but in terms of the quantity elsewhere and top line looking at all the catalogs, um, I think the main conversations are around how many watches are coming up, how many watches of great quality are coming up, as well as two of the larger collectors over the past five to ten years at auction scenes in these top lots selling off. |
| Ben Clymer | So that's two less collectors, right? Yeah, and what I mean, what is that? And we won't speak about their specific situations, but what does that tell you about like the broader collector base at large? If if two guys, such as the gentleman, you know, kind of in question here, are have decided to sell now versus waiting for maybe slightly more stable socio-political economic environment. Um, does that send a signal that maybe now is like we we've reached the pinnacle, now we're on our way down and people are trying to to sell before we kind of hit hit a a trough? Or is it just that maybe they're just tired of it and and they're mov |
| Rich Fordin | ing on. Yeah, I'll probably lean towards the second one there. It it seems like these two collectors aren't necessarily those that are trying to time the market macro wise. So it could just be time to sell. Yeah. T |
| Tony Traina | ony, thoughts? I think that's probably right. I don't want to make a market out of two guys that happen to be selling around the same time. Yeah. I I'm sure they probably wish they had sold a year and a half ago if they had been thinking about doing it, but you know, they're at that point in their life. And I think if we're being honest, there probably is not a sign that there's going to be a huge hyperbolic growth in the watch market over the next few years the way we saw previously. Um, which honestly is probably healthy for for the auction market, the watch market more generally. Um so I don't think they're sitting on it thinking that they're missing out on any returns the way that uh they they may have been over the the growth we saw over the past few years. Right. So let's let's talk a little bit |
| Ben Clymer | about what what there are a lot of, which we've already alluded to. So there are a lot of simplicities. Uh our friends at Loop Disc currently have a simplicity on on sale right now, plus all the guys in in the auctions. We've got uh quite a few George Daniels watches, including the only double-signed George Daniels Roger Smith watch, which I know is a very special one. We have um some Roger Smiths without George Daniels on it. I mean we've got I mean I won't even get into how many Jorns we have on the market, you know, very air quotes special Jorns. What what what's going on in the independence |
| Tony Traina | market Can I just ask you a question? Because you used air quotes around special Jorn and I'm I'm wondering what what you meant by that |
| Ben Clymer | . I mean like the look, I mean, the Juran production numbers is is very low, right? And it's just like I just don't know how many you know, again, I think that the there's ever all these markets are once once you get into any small market, you realize how thin the air is, right? And it's like I I had I had breakfast with somebody recently who realized we own the same watch. You know, and we we'd we'd known each other online for years and we didn't even know we basically owned the same watch, like the actual same watch. Um and you realize how small and kind of insular these worlds are. And all of a sudden there's just a lot of really similar watches on the market. Another example would be Phillips uh Hong Kong having another Retcheprice CC1, Black Dial. Right. So that's two this year, right? There's twenty-five of those in the world. So we're talking roughly 10% of them are now for sale in 2023 via Phillips. Right. So like all of a sudden you realize how small that world is. And when I say air quotes, I just mean that like all these jaurns are special for sure, but like how many people are actually buying these things? And how many people like if if they all knew that you know, if if Rich and I both had 37 millimeter rose gold simplicities when we were friends. You know, if he knew he was selling his now, I wouldn't sell mine right now. And we should talk and I would sell mine in another platform or something like that. And so I guess I just mean that like that there's a lot of watches that are indeed special, the Jorns included, but they just might not feel that way because there are so many of them available right now |
| Tony Traina | . Yeah, one of the things uh I went to physical auctions in Geneva for the first time last last spring. One of the things I was noticing, Rich was there as well. You see the same four or five folks bidding on a lot of the high end lots. Um I don't know if a couple of them were representatives, probably not of the Zaman collection or the Oak collection at this point, because they had been looking at selling. But if two of the two of the bigger folks are now out of the market that were dealing in the rare fried air that you're talking about, that could mean something for the market at the super, super high end. Um talking about Jorn and Debit Union, you see people like watchbox representatives literally bidding in the room for these watches. Um and that that helps helps create the market there and sustain the market. Um and I guess I didn't have as much of a grasp of that until I had sort of observed some of these things physically in in the room, uh seeing Rolex bid in the room on some of the watches that we were talking about. Um that said, that's the super high end. And I don't want to make too much about the market as a whole based on, you know, the million dollar watches that that I'm a spectator of instead of the stuff that I'm really interested in buying. Um so so that's that's all to say that um the high end is not like super representative of of what's happening on the ground more so where I think there is a lot of excitement around um some of this stuff still. Like what? What what are people excited about? Well I was excited about the 6062s as I mentioned. I liked writing about those. You know, I went I combed through years of auction reports or auction results on those. You and I were talking about the 25, 26, uh white gold that's at Phillips, which I think we're excited about, enamel dial. The most exciting thing I think for me at the auctions this season is um at the Oak Collection, they've got a 15 or 55, 16, I should say, sorry. It's the AP perpetual calendar, one of nine, I think, right? You went hands-on with this example. It's the same example that came up at Christie's 2015, 2016, I would say. Sounds right. So if you dig in the archives of Hodinky, you can see Ben's hands-on of it from nearly a decade ago at this point, not to age you been. Um but it's it's a one of nine watch and it reminds me of last in the spring, Phillips had a complete calendar chronograph AP from the 40s or 50s. And it was for me, it was the standout of the season, honestly. It sold for like 740, 750,000 Swiss francs. That is a one of 10 watch. And it's like little 33, 34 millimeter thing from the fifties that you wouldn't think much of, but you pick it up in your in your hands and it's just like such high quality. You just feel the difference of it. And and these things are just so, so rare. And that was a complete calendar chronograph. That wasn't a perpetual. So I think this is a a special watch. It sold for about half a million dollars. Um when it looks like the Oak Collection bought it in in twenty fifteen. And I assume it's a million dollar plus watch now. |
| Ben Clymer | Yeah, uh I I don't necessarily agree that it's a million dollar post watch, but we'll save that conversation for another day. This will be off camera or give Tony a good talking to. Just kidding. Um the the fifty-five sixteen is one of my favorites. It's hand wound perpetual, one of nine. Uh, you know, as as I've long expounded, like vintage Vashron vintage AP relative to vintage patek is so special. Quality is exactly the same. Uh designs are argu well, you know, like I mean design is subjective, but like really special design from AP and Vashron and so much more rare than vintage patek by like a factor of 10 plus, you know, and in perpetual factor of 20. Um, so that that's a good call out. That's a great watch for sure. And that's a real connoisseurs watch. Um, you know, you see a wide range of in the oak collection and and in the other single owners, you get a wide range of stuff that like really is like kind of holy shit, this is real grail stuff and then other stuff that's like, oh, okay, like he's he's into that. That's cool. You know, and which we're all there. Like I've made some very poor decisions in my life, no, no doubt. Um, but that that's a special one. I think, you know, the as you mentioned, the the 2526 white uh which is a first series watch is is really a neat one at at Phillips. You know, the the idea of white metal enamel dial 2526s, no surprise. I love those. Um, you just don't see them come up for sale often. I'm not sure what number Phillips is quoting in terms of how many they've seen in terms of white gold enameled aisle 2526s, but it's not a lot, I can tell you that. I don't remember the last time one has come up at sale. I do remember a platinum watch, but it wasn't super great example. Uh this looks like a nice I haven't but looks like a nice white gold example. That should do really well, assuming that my taste and and kind of you know traditional vintage taste still has some relevance in in this world. Um that's a really neat watch to me. Another one that is also kind of very me is a really early 6239 cream dial. So double Swiss, non-underline, which is interesting based on the serial uh serial range. You know, these are just watches that like I've loved for a long time, I continue to love, in some cases I continue to own. Um and you just don't see them often. And it in both of these cases, Phillips has seemingly, and I say seemingly simply because I haven't seen them yet, um, seemingly really nice examples. And I think if if there is a resurgence in vintage, I think th |
| Tony Traina | ose washes should do extremely well. Yeah, 25-26s in particular, it's important to stress, I think, uh, when you haven't seen them in person, because sometimes you look at these enamel dials up close and there's like spider cracking all over the place. Uh we've been talking about vintage. We kind of dodged the indie question that you started with. I'm curious if there's anything in particular. Like you said, there's a plethora of DeFor, Daniel, Jorn. Anything in particular you're excit |
| Ben Clymer | ed Which is really neat. And if you know Roger, which I'm sure you guys do to some degree, like that's a really neat thing for him. It's a really neat thing for me as a fan of that relationship. Um I'm I'm curious to see, and this is like just purely like I wouldn't say the speculator in me, because I don't own one, but somebody that like watches this stuff closely and watches the market closely, the the Rechep Rechepi pinkle black dial, um, which is coming up in Hong Kong, like the last time that there are 25 of these in that configuration, 50 in total of the the CC one. The last time and only time one sold publicly, I think it sold for eight hundred, something like eight, nine, it's between seven and nine hundred thousand, which is just bananas considering the watch retailed for 55, 60, you know, recently, like within the past few years. And you know, I was speaking with a collector friend of mine, and we were just really curious: like, will that number hold? Right? So you have Rechep, Rechepi, who's, I would say not even arguably, he's indisputably the hottest independent watchmaker in the world. This is a very rare watch. There's 25 of them in this in this configuration. The watch market has changed since the last time one of his watches came up earlier this year. Will it hold? I I don't know. My guess is probably yes. But I mean that is just an exorbitant amount of money for a very simple watch |
| Rich Fordin | . Yeah, I think we're talking about it from the buy side a lot, but on the sourcing side, what I think is interesting, whether it's the Rush up or this two five two six, I know a white two five two six sold privately within this range in the past year. I think when we look at the breadth of the catalogs and seeing similar things coming back up again, it's easy to see the collector who had that rare thing, such as a Reg, want to put one up for sale because they saw that big number. Now the question is, does it hold? And my sort of inclination is to ask like the specialists and the auction houses have a duty to the consigner to make sure things are timed well. Right. But at the same time, given the market right now, they want to put together the best catalog they can. And is there even a concern that they want to hold that number and what does that even look |
| Ben Clymer | like? I I don't know. I mean I think like that that's a question for the the the consigner for sure. But it's like I think the the question is like to me and to this gentleman that I'm that I'm referring to, it's like if if the hottest you know the again I'll use air quotes, which again doesn't make for great radio. Um if the hottest watch in the world, which I would put the Red Chep Red Chep E C C one or two right up there, if that can't hold in this market, what can? And I'm not saying it can't. Like it's very likely that it goes for what it did last time. Or, you know, again, we're talking about a many X return on retail no matter what. Um, but if somebody paid we'll say eight hundred thousand dollars to split the difference between what I think it went for. Um and and then six months later it sells for less than that. What does that mean for for this world? Anything, I don |
| Tony Traina | 't know. Yeah, and the thing is, you know, over the past few years, you and Jeff again kind of talked about this. There was so much speculation around watches as investments and people looking for quote unquote the next big thing. Um Jorn being one of the original big things or Dufour and Rec Shep became that next big thing. And a lot of people were searching for the next one. And maybe that was Debatune. And maybe that was whatever it was. People thought it was Simone Brett as one of them now. Uh whoever it is, right? And that drove up a lot of speculation in in a lot of these uh watchmakers, which is which is fine I guess, but it it drives up the prices. Sometimes it's unwarranted and I think some of that that money is is being flushed out of the system right now, which is probably a good thing. And to Rich's earlier point, I think one way to analyze auctions is to look at what's for sale. But another important thing to do is to look at what's not for sale. Uh because that's the stuff that collectors are holding on to because they don't want to sell it no matter the price. So just think about that when you're flipping through the catalogs as well. I c I uh somet |
| Ben Clymer | hing that really jumped out at me about something that is not for sale this season. You know where I'm headed with this? Think about it. What is like the most discussed slash controversial watch of the past three years and what is not for sale? There's not a lot of speedmasters around right now. Also that, but I'm referring to a particular blue dial novelist. There's not a single Tiffany blue dial Nautilus for sale this season, I don't think. Is there? I don't think I saw one. Yeah. It's a fifty thousand dollar watch that retail that would trade for will be conservative and say two million dollars, whatever, you know, plus or minus. They they've s in every season there's been since since it came out, there's been one or two and they've all done pretty well. I don't know where the market is now. Slight downward trend, but yeah of course um but the fact that nobody is selling them now is interesting to me what do you think that means they've all found happy homes I think you think so they're they're all they're all they're all where they belong me yeah. All 170 are with the the greatest of collectors in the world for sure. But that that was that was sh that was shocking to me that none of those found their way into catalogs this year. Because it like, I mean, at worst case scenario, right? We all know what people paid for those. It was fifty-two thousand dollar retail plus tax, whatever we'll say fifty-six, fifty-seven thousand. Worst case scenario, those are one and a half million dollars every day of the week. Like that's a pretty hard return to turn down, right |
| Tony Traina | ? I guess so, but if you know, if you saw the three million dollars or the four million, whatever it was, you know, maybe you maybe you hold out a little bit of hope, Ben. I don't know. I'm an optimistic guy though. You sure are. You' su |
| Ben Clymer | rere are. Okay, so no no Tiffany Dauntilus, which I think is genuinely shocking, truly, considering there's 170 of them out there. Uh and then you also have like uh in many ways, like you you have the watches that were air quotes hypey over the past few years. So s you have some, but not like crazy examples like steel 571s, uh 15202s and RD watches from from AP, things that were like were really, really hot. And you know, again, next to impossible to get at retail. You saw you we saw a lot of those over the years because they were trading like, you know, an RD so and so from AP is we'll say 150 grand, and they were trading at two and a half times that, or ceramic, right? So like the white ceramic, the blue ceramic, these things were impossible to get and trading in many X retail. And we're not seeing a lot of those right now either |
| Tony Traina | . Yeah, I remember this is slightly skewed, but I remember uh last spring when Phillips did the Royal Oak fifty sale, there were Royal Oaks everywhere in Geneva. You you walked out on the sidewalk and you tripped over a Royal Oak, and I remember counting them in the auction catalogs. And I think it was twenty five or thirty percent of all lots were Royal Oaks that spring. That's too much. Which was insane. Usually it's, you know, eight, twelve percent, let's say. And it's certainly reverted to the mean, um, more or less Royal Oaks than than a year ago than the 50th anniversary, which is to be expected. But I think to your point, I've I think generally I've just seen more variety across the catalogs. There's just a lot of independence, a lot of cool vintage stuff. I mean we were talking about the Brando at the start and that was the headline lot when it came to New York in 2019. And it probably won't even be the most expensive Rolex this time around. We saw that Oyster Soto go for 1.7 at at Monaco Legends. You know, there's other Rolex watches across Geneva that that might hit a couple million. And that doesn't even that's not even mentioning the independence that might sell for more as well. So there's just a lot more uh than there's a lot more variety I think than than we saw maybe a year or two ago when it seemed as though auction catalogs were really trying to position themselves as to what they knew to be hot at the time. |
| Rich Fordin | Yeah. Yeah. Is the lack of Tiffany Nautilus's or special royal oaks an admission that two one year ago was the peak of that market and we're looking for a new thing and that's why we have such breadth in these catalogs and may |
| Ben Clymer | be. Maybe. I mean I I I I I you know I'm not gonna I'm not gonna posit anything here, but I think that like I think auction houses in general and I think collectors are in general are realizing that like all these markets are thin, right? And so it's like if somebody wanted to sell uh subscription gen or uh duality or Tiffany Nautilus like some mega watch the the realistic buyer set for any one of those things is is I don't want to say known to to most of these experts and dealers, but it's a good percentage of them are known, right? There's that random Chinese billionaire that nobody's ever heard of. There's that random, you know, guy in New York that like, you know, just doesn't care about the value but just wants to have the coolest stuff. But if you're in the community, and most buyers are in the community to some degree, um, everybody knows these people. And I think like I think in in many cases, maybe what you're insinuating, Rich, is that like these markets are they're cooked. Like they're they're not done by any means. And like these are still active valuable markets. But you know, maybe it's just like we as you said, maybe we've hit kind of peak modulus, peak AP, peak uh, you know, J |
| Rich Fordin | orn. Yeah, it's more exciting for me. I think looking through the catalogs, this season I you know opened up a new tab with more lots than the previous two years because for most of that modern and the quote unquote hype stuff, I kinda just scroll by and then look at the numbers after the auctions pass and digest it then. But in terms of what interests me, I I mean, this season seems to have more and more. So what's the one watch you would buy this year if you could uh 6264 gold Phillips cherry red logo. Very cool to me. It should be a John Player special or a lemon dial. The fact that it wasn't swapped over the years to make a million dollar watch and that now it's presented what we presume to be in an original state with the right dial. Yeah. It's in that tight serial range, and it's the consigner or whoever owned that watch admitting that he's okay having a rarer four hundred thousand dollar watch than a one point five million dollar watch if you would swap the dial. And that's not necessarily like all that common. And I think the three of us would disagree with that decision, but all the markers are there for that to be an opportunity. It wasn't done. And outside of those dynamics, it's just like the perfect manual wounded tono to me. It's a very nice |
| Ben Clymer | watch. It really is. Tony, what would be your your one watch of the season if you could take anything home? I I wrote a lot about the six |
| Tony Traina | oh six two, which is still on my mind. I love the pink gold stilene one that's at Christie's. It's it's from the Bethune collection originally, the first time we saw it come up in twenty twelve. It appeared again a few years later and it's it's coming to auction again for the third. Gordon Bethune. Gordon Bethune, thank you. Yeah. Yeah. Um also in a hodinky article from twenty twelve, actually. So if you really want to dig into the archives, you'll see some some really crappy photos of it that uh that I think Ben took. Um so that, you know, if I had an unlimited amount of money, that would probably be the one. Yeah. Chrissy's also has a they have a a really early date just, which is cool. Uh, you know, forty four sixty seven. Uh it literally has movement number twelve on it. Which I this is just a historical oddity, I think, that kind of no one's mentioning. Yeah. So, you know, if I had to if I had to pair back the funds a little bit. Mabey I'd throw my money at that one. Yeah, I mean for for me, I |
| Ben Clymer | mean look, I the the Steel six zero six two like I don't want to call it a basic watch because again you and I have excellent taste. Um but it's it's a watch that that I have no no shame in saying I I lust over and you know, seeing Jason Singer's, which you pointed out in that first talking watches with him, and then John Goldberger's in the second one, like these are just these are as good as it gets. I mean it's a date just case basically in steel, but with a with a triple complication. I I love the gold pump pusher as well. Um the Dufour Grand Sonnery, uh, which you know that there's like two sides of me as a collector. One side is like just cool old shit, which is 6062 is, you know. And then there's like, all right, like I I know DuFour. I don't know if you guys know this, but I know Dufour. Um and I, you know, I I have a lot of respect and some understanding of what it takes to do things like that. And it's like that is that's about as good as you're going to get from and like if if if if independent watchmaking has a future, which we all know it does, how can Dufour's most complicated wristwatch not be something that you just would die to have, you know? I think the big thing on independence that's changing right now, and I should have said this earlier, is you now have retail prices, at least in the case of Roger Smith, at least in the case of Dufour, uh Debatun journal to a lesser extent that are now like they're so far uh they're so much higher than they were before that now it's like the secondhand price versus the primary price are not that far apart. So it's like and granted, like, you know, you can't just walk in and order a Roger Smith, anything, you can't just walk in and order uh simplicity, although, you know, it is conceivable in some way. Um that like I think maybe a lot of people are just like, huh, like maybe I'll just try to get one directly from the man himself instead of trying to buy one at auction. |
| Rich Fordin | I think my reaction is a different, huh? It's hard for me to, without that access, cry for the guy who has access at that original retail price that they're now higher. Um I think these things to me really only exist in this auction world in terms of pricing. And what the makers when they do adjust their pricing, when they do change the pricing on these things, it just doesn't affect the larger market for the wat |
| Ben Clymer | ch. Right. Tell me I'm wrong. Right. No, you I think you're right. But um you know it it just it makes people kind of like mutter a little bit. And the people that that own these watches and have supported them that say, Oh, maybe I want another one when you paid X in you know, previously now you're paying three X. That's a challenging conversation to have for sure. Um but I do again like those that the the world of like Paul Newman buyer which Jeff Hess and I talked a lot about or even you know gold cherry I think it's cherry 6264 like that is a it's a very those are easy watches to understand to a rich guy that likes watches, right? Like this is a it's a gold Daytona. It's hand wound. Like, you know, what's not to like. The the independent stuff is a little bit harder, I think, to understand historically anyway. I think now people are getting it with the rise of Jorne in particular, that like there is a real market for this stuff. Um so I just don't know, you know, I I hear what you're saying, Rich, but I think like there's so many people that like placed orders for those watches when they were like, wow, am I ever going to get my money back on a on a Roger Smith Series 2 at X? You know, which was just a crazy price, or people thought it was a crazy price at the time. And now, of course, we see that it th this the street val |
| Rich Fordin | ue is many times that, you know. Yeah, and does it take the legs out of a brand when that decision is made and the the X sort of return immediately when you take a delivery of a piece like that. Does that change the appreciation to that guy that you're speaking about who bu |
| Ben Clymer | ys these? Well, I mean, like it might not that that statement might not, or that question might not apply only to independence, but like what if uh what if AP what if you could get an AP sixteen two oh two at the street price, which is I don't know, I don't even know what it is. Now we'll say eighty to a hundred grand versus the twenty five. Like would you buy it? Would I mean assuming that was the watch you wanted, like would that be compelling to you at at a number like that? Or do you look at things as like, hey, like a fifteen two oh two, a sixteen two oh two is a great watch at thirty thousand bucks, but at eighty thousand bucks it makes no sense |
| Rich Fordin | . I don't know. Yeah, I think it's back to the discussion that you and Jeff had on the last episode, which is this rise of investment and how that was a dirty word for a long time, and now it's like the word almost in a lot of cases with certain brands and certain models. But um you know to answer the question, I think if I could have access to that AP, the answer is yes at, you know, retail price. And that that seems like such a no-brainer now. Um, but if those things change, then that no longer becomes a no no-brainer, obviously. Th |
| Tony Traina | ere aren't a whole lot of modern watches I'd buy at their secondary market price if it's above retail right now, to be honest. We can debate about where the vintage and independent markets are at, but I think it's pretty clear that these modern mass-produced watches on the secondary market their value continues to go down. Um and at the same time these brands have uh souped up their manufacturing capabilities in a lot of cases and continue to pump out more You think the prices will continue to go down for Nautiluses, APs, things like that? For a little bit. I think they'll stabilize and maybe they've stabilized around where they are. But I think they'll continue to |
| Ben Clymer | Yeah. Yeah, I think you know Chrono 24, our friends over there, like they they came out with a new kind of report, we'll we'll call it uh this this past week and had a look and I was with Tim, their CEO last week as well. And it like according to them, the prices have stabilized. Like that they've they've dropped their twenty-five, thirty percent from peak, mind you. Uh and now they they think that things are are much more stable than than than they were before. I mean I think we've seen things be so tumultuous over the past six months that I think I think we all kind of hope they've stabilized. According to Chrono twenty four, they have. Um again, I I can't I'm not gonna put my foot on scale in one way or another, but that that's kind of the way that that that they're seeing things right now for sure. And I think like the there's no question that the brands have been uh quick to to jump on the fact that there's like renewed interest in laches over the past three years. And I I I would like to think that they wouldn't be so foolish to think that like this will last So I would hope that they're smart about distribution with with all this stuff. Um any closing thoughts or any uh secret desires or wishes for this upcoming auction season |
| Tony Traina | ? I you know, I'm hoping for that 6062 to show up in my uh maybe a Christmas gift or something from a Christmas phone from Rich. Something like that. But besides that, I hope that uh I hope that there's no sort of I think the way in which we covered auctions a lot over the past few years, there was a lot of sort of breathless coverage of of headlines and and headline lots and big numbers and big auction results and stuff like that. I think because of things that have happened around the auction world over the past couple of years, we've wised up to that and view things with a more critical or more reasonable eye and I just hope we continue to do that. Yeah. Rich? |
| Rich Fordin | Yeah, I think I'm always looking at the fringes in these kinds of auctions. Uh, you know, like people like Tony cover the headliner lots and I can kind of focus on more of the secondary level. So I'm interested to see, you know, like what more normal references like vintage Daytonas, vintage subs, when I see them in good condition, as far as I can tell from photos not handling these watches in person, um, I think when you see major outlier results at the end of the sales, you have to go back and figure out like why that was and was it just two people in the room that got in a fight or what have you. But um yeah, I I'm looking to that sort of middle quality wat |
| Ben Clymer | ch as always. Yeah. So I mean so going back to the conversation I had with Jeff on the last episode, like where where do you see as somebody who and for those who don't know uh ri Rich is a VIP advisor, so so uh more on the commercial side of of the house, you're dealing with watches in the market all day. Where do you see vintage Rolex? Like is there an increased demand for it? Are people kind of circling back around or is it still kind of where it's been over the past six months or so, two years or so |
| Rich Fordin | ? I think I would go towards that last one there. Um the people that want it are still there. The issue of vintage Rolex lately is not a change in price, it's a change in velocity. If you want a great matte dial GMT, it's there for you. But given the tone of the market, you would expect it to be five grand less than it was a year ago, and it's just not. Um, because the holders of those watches don't really pay attention to the rest of the market, in my opinion, as much as like a modern Batman buyer does or a for talking secondary market values on these modern watches, but um there's still an interest and a willingness to pay the price when that price is up, but the velocity is is down versus when I say down, I would say two years ago. Interesting. So you're saying vintage Rolex velocity is down from two years ago, which was kind of the peak of the contemporary watch world. Right. I would say so. There was a when that was all going on for me at least. I saw people looking to other things, and vintage had a bit of a background moment still. You know, that's when we saw Mark I GMT's fuchsia bezels were going a little bit insane, or radial dials, like these very rare er niche variants of popular models doing really well and actually gaining in price sort of subtly while this whole modern watch thing was happening. And maybe that's over a little bit and those prices are actually slightly decreased. I mean, anything that went up in twenty twenty one has come down. Um and that was a little bit part of it. But uh the regular market for vintage Rolex is is really always there for me. It's when it becomes on trend when you get more calls, but there's always interest. |
| Ben Clymer | Interesting. So you're you're are you getting more calls now than you were three months ago for vintage or is it still more contemporary focused stu |
| Rich Fordin | ff? Versus three months ago, certainly. You're getting more yeah. I think it's if I'm looking at a trend and it's the start of one maybe or it's a blip. You know, it's it's up, but it I wouldn't sit here and save into Trollox's back and it's the next thing. Got it. Got it. Cool |
| Ben Clymer | . Guys, thank you very much uh for joining me today. Uh for everyone at home, um, you know, stay tuned to Hodinky. We're gonna have some coverage, I think, some auctions. I guess, right, Tony? I guess so. I guess so. Uh so you know, in in the first episode, we're calling it episode zero with Mr. James Stacy. We said we would do an episode dedicated completely to answering your questions. So if you guys have any questions for myself, for Tony, for Rich, for anybody in in the house, so to speak, email us at radio at hodinky.com and we will give you an entire episode dedicated to answering said questions. Thank you guys. See you next week. |